"It'll be OK, lil' buddy"Friends, we are in dire straits. We are a mere months away from becoming really huge hockey fans.
As of 11 p.m. Central Standard Time last night, the NBA owners locked out its players. Of course, the NFL is also in a lockout situation. Come October, the only sports we may have are college football, NHL and MLB playoffs.
Locally, the question is where this puts the Dallas Mavericks. I've heard that Mark Cuban is part of a contigent of owners wanting to really hold out and stick it to the players. The general complaint is that owners are losing money (a reported $300 million last season) and its due to player contracts (mostly).
I don't know how Cuban feels. He seems like a "player's owner," someone who has faithfully (sometimes, by fault) stuck by his players and tried to treat them as well as possible.
He's also a businessman, who talks constantly in the cold language of business and making money.
As for the team, this is how I think this lockout could affect them:
Short-Term Effects
This is one of the oldest teams in the league coming off playing 103 NBA games and winning an NBA championship. The reason winning back to back championships is so tough isn't because you're no longer any good. You're tired. And you might not be as hungry. Right now, who's thinking more about the 2011-12 Finals: Kobe Bryant or Dirk Nowitzki? I'm not doubting Nowitzki's desire to win. I'm doubting that as he's hanging with old friends and family in Germany, drinking and partying that he's got all his focus on another championship. Same with all those guys. Some -- Tyson Chander, Joe John Barea, DeShawn Stevenson -- are all thinking about free agency. Others might be thinking about playing overseas and settling their financial status if the lockout goes through.
Let's assume the lockout ends, either in September, October or November and there's an abbreviated season, of sorts. Teams play, say, 52 games. That's 30 less games going on the tires of Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Shawn Marion. It's also another several months for Roddy Beaubois to get sufficiently healthy for his return in 2030.
Right now, a shortened season is maybe the most ideal situation for the Dallas Mavericks. It's time to get rested, healthy and, maybe most importantly, focused.
Long-Term Effects
Let's assume some more. Let's say the 2011-12 NBA season does not happen (clutch the motherfucking pearls!). The next NBA tip-off will be in October 2012. Nowitzki will be 34. Jason Kidd, 39. Jason Terry, 35. Shawn Marion 34.
You're not talking about young guys here, and this is a fact we already were aware of. Historically, those are the ages were players begin to drop off. Kidd's an amazing athlete. Still, he is not nearly the player at 38 than he was at 28. Still good, yes. They're not getting younger and, for the most part, they're not getting better. Those four guys have peaked. That "peak" was as high as you can go as a professional basketball player, but it's still a peak and the only way off a mountain is down. Missing another season will not be a good thing and I don't think it plays out well for Cuban's apparent disregard for the "rebuilding process," which is noble, but requires the subtle exchange for quality youth over fading experience.
Also, consider whether an extended lockout affects the status of guys. Kidd, for example, will be almost 40 and he's already hinted that retirement has crept into the back of his mind. What if missing an entire year -- all that time on the couch -- convinces him it's time. How does an extended lockout affect free agents like Chandler or even Caron Butler, if the idea is to bring them back? Lot of idle time for these guys to think.
If you are a Mavericks fan, you hope the lockout lingers a little, but that it comes back at a point where they can play at least a half-season in 2011-12. We might not like the looks of things in 2012.
