Friday 24 June 2011

The Mavericks in flux

Making bank
The NBA Finals and Draft are out of the way. We are not beset with the extremely real probability of a lockout and the very real possibility of a truncated 2011-12 season or even -- gulp! -- no NBA season at all.

That's if the players and owners can't be friends. Nothing we can do about any of that. We don't understand a vast majority of it.

As of right now, I'm operating under the assumption that there will be some sort of 2011-12 NBA season and that the Dallas Mavericks will attempt to win back-to-back titles, however unlikely that seems.

You start, first, with your own home. As of this minute -- including the acquisition of Rudy Fernandez, the Mavericks are on the books for $63 million for 10 players. Last season, the paid $92 million.

Truth is, the Mavericks could look different next season. The core -- Kidd, Terry, Dirk, Marion -- are all back. However, I think the trade for Fernandez last night was an indicator that at least part of this team might not be around.

Of the $29 million coming off the books, about $2.7 million is that of Tim Thomas, Greg Buckner, Sasha Pavlovic and Steve Novak. Here is who is coming off the books and who the Mavericks will need to think long and hard about.

Tyson Chandler
31 - $12 million 2010-11 salary
The free agent-to-be played like one this season. He played in 74 games and was a huge factor in the Mavericks A) winning a title and B) becoming a good defensive team. Chandler is an animal the Mavericks have never had. I assume they'll try to keep him. Not that money is an issue ... but in sports, it's an issue. A year ago, Brendan Haywood's contract, some argued, wasn't big at six year, $55 million. Compare his output to that of Chandler, Haywood was severely overpaid. If you wonder what Chandler is going to get paid, consider that he was already getting $12 million. Then, this, comparing contract years:

Haywood -- 31 years old - 8 points - 7 rebounds - 2 blocks
Chandler -- 28 years old - 10 points - 9 rebounds - 1.1 blocks

Haywood went on to get $9 million a year. Three years older. And not nearly the player that Chandler is. I'm awful at predicting contracts, but I would assume Chandler will want $12-13 million a year for five years, give or take. Six years, $72 million? No way he'll want less than Haywood and no way he'll want less than five years, this probably being his last big contract. So, consider dedicating 12 years of contracts totaling $127 million. That's a lot of cash.

Also, consider that Chandler will shop around. He's a guy that's oft-injured and will look for the best deal he can find. He's no lock to come back.

Caron Butler
31 - $10 million 2010-11 salary
I don't know what missing most of a season does to a guy like Butler's negotiating power. Unlike Chandler, I do think Butler is more than likely to return because he's a second or third fiddle on a winning team. His ideal situation. He has almost no competition and can have as many minutes as he wants. Plus, he's been with four teams in his career. I doubt he'd want to keep moving around. Another point to consider is that no one's going to be knocking down his door. Getting a decent contract with the Mavs is as good as a decent contract in Milwaukee or New Orleans. Prepare for the Mavs to overpay a little here. They were woefully thin at the shooting guard/small forward spot for most of the year. Stabilizing that spot with Butler and Fernandez, they probably think, is a good option.

DeShawn Stevenson
30 - $4.1 million 2010-11 salary
Stevenson might have gotten his walking papers last night when the Mavericks traded for Fernandez. However, if he was willing to take a reduced role and a pay decrease, the Mavs would have him back. But, he will take neither. Stevenson thinks he's as good as anyone in the NBA. And I think he'll have suitors. He's just 30, he will not cost too much and he's proven that he can be valuable starting or off the bench. He may not be in Dallas, but Stevenson will land on his feet somewhere.

J.J. Barea
27 - $1.8 million 2010-11 salary
As the NBA Finals wore on, guess who was adding cash to their bankroll. Joe effin' John Barea! It's semi-shocking that he's as old as he is (he turns 27 in, like, five days). He's got a ton of holes in his game, but if you don't think every fan in the NBA weren't licking their chops at the possibility of having the Puerto Rican wonder, you are crazy. He's likable as hell and played himself into a significant pay increase. I bet he gets quite a bit of looks from other teams. Question is, is he really dedicated to the Mavericks or is he like anyone else and wants his payday?

Brian Cardinal
34 - $1.3 million 2010-11 salary
Zero problem with Cardinal and him making $1.3. If the Mavs wanted to throw $2 million at him next year, no problem there either. Cardinal's simply useful. He's The Custodian for crying out loud. Would love to see him back as the 10th man.

Peja Stojakovic
34 - $706K 2011-10 salary
In fantasy sports, you are often forced with making tough decisions. Often, you fall in love with a player and you take a hard look and realize they're not performing for you and you can improve in that position. The fact you have to consider is this, "If I look in the free-agent pool in a month, will he still be there?" The answer, most of the time, is "yes." If Brewer, Fernandez, Beaubois, Butler and Dom Jones are parts of this team, that leaves Stojakovic out. However, I bet you can look in on him in December and he'll still be there. Waiting.