Rangers lose rather inpercise art of gambling

A fine mess

Brandon Webb is out for the season and will likely require rotator cuff surgery. Sad news for a guy who was probably the best pitcher in Major League Baseball for a couple of years and who had certain unrefined expectations when the Rangers threw $3 million and incentives at him in the off-season.

This was a solid gamble and one I take over and over. Webb's time cost $3 million. That's chump change to the Rangers who just gave a 16-year-old Dominican outfielder $5 million. There was zero risk and high reward for the Rangers. Even if Webb would have met all of his incentives, it still would have been a bargain.

GM Jon Daniels likes investing. Relatively speaking, Webb was low cost and he was here for the immediate future. Giving Eric Gagne or Kenny Lofton $5 million -- considering where the Rangers were as an organization -- were rentals. If they succeeded they were going to be traded. If they flopped, it was still worth the risk.

Those gambles paid off. This one didn't. The only thing you can do is keep playing the game.

The Mavericks in flux

Making bank

The NBA Finals and Draft are out of the way. We are not beset with the extremely real probability of a lockout and the very real possibility of a truncated 2011-12 season or even -- gulp! -- no NBA season at all.

That's if the players and owners can't be friends. Nothing we can do about any of that. We don't understand a vast majority of it.

As of right now, I'm operating under the assumption that there will be some sort of 2011-12 NBA season and that the Dallas Mavericks will attempt to win back-to-back titles, however unlikely that seems.

You start, first, with your own home. As of this minute -- including the acquisition of Rudy Fernandez, the Mavericks are on the books for $63 million for 10 players. Last season, the paid $92 million.

Truth is, the Mavericks could look different next season. The core -- Kidd, Terry, Dirk, Marion -- are all back. However, I think the trade for Fernandez last night was an indicator that at least part of this team might not be around.

Of the $29 million coming off the books, about $2.7 million is that of Tim Thomas, Greg Buckner, Sasha Pavlovic and Steve Novak. Here is who is coming off the books and who the Mavericks will need to think long and hard about.

Tyson Chandler
31 - $12 million 2010-11 salary
The free agent-to-be played like one this season. He played in 74 games and was a huge factor in the Mavericks A) winning a title and B) becoming a good defensive team. Chandler is an animal the Mavericks have never had. I assume they'll try to keep him. Not that money is an issue ... but in sports, it's an issue. A year ago, Brendan Haywood's contract, some argued, wasn't big at six year, $55 million. Compare his output to that of Chandler, Haywood was severely overpaid. If you wonder what Chandler is going to get paid, consider that he was already getting $12 million. Then, this, comparing contract years:

Haywood -- 31 years old - 8 points - 7 rebounds - 2 blocks
Chandler -- 28 years old - 10 points - 9 rebounds - 1.1 blocks

Haywood went on to get $9 million a year. Three years older. And not nearly the player that Chandler is. I'm awful at predicting contracts, but I would assume Chandler will want $12-13 million a year for five years, give or take. Six years, $72 million? No way he'll want less than Haywood and no way he'll want less than five years, this probably being his last big contract. So, consider dedicating 12 years of contracts totaling $127 million. That's a lot of cash.

Also, consider that Chandler will shop around. He's a guy that's oft-injured and will look for the best deal he can find. He's no lock to come back.

Caron Butler
31 - $10 million 2010-11 salary
I don't know what missing most of a season does to a guy like Butler's negotiating power. Unlike Chandler, I do think Butler is more than likely to return because he's a second or third fiddle on a winning team. His ideal situation. He has almost no competition and can have as many minutes as he wants. Plus, he's been with four teams in his career. I doubt he'd want to keep moving around. Another point to consider is that no one's going to be knocking down his door. Getting a decent contract with the Mavs is as good as a decent contract in Milwaukee or New Orleans. Prepare for the Mavs to overpay a little here. They were woefully thin at the shooting guard/small forward spot for most of the year. Stabilizing that spot with Butler and Fernandez, they probably think, is a good option.

DeShawn Stevenson
30 - $4.1 million 2010-11 salary
Stevenson might have gotten his walking papers last night when the Mavericks traded for Fernandez. However, if he was willing to take a reduced role and a pay decrease, the Mavs would have him back. But, he will take neither. Stevenson thinks he's as good as anyone in the NBA. And I think he'll have suitors. He's just 30, he will not cost too much and he's proven that he can be valuable starting or off the bench. He may not be in Dallas, but Stevenson will land on his feet somewhere.

J.J. Barea
27 - $1.8 million 2010-11 salary
As the NBA Finals wore on, guess who was adding cash to their bankroll. Joe effin' John Barea! It's semi-shocking that he's as old as he is (he turns 27 in, like, five days). He's got a ton of holes in his game, but if you don't think every fan in the NBA weren't licking their chops at the possibility of having the Puerto Rican wonder, you are crazy. He's likable as hell and played himself into a significant pay increase. I bet he gets quite a bit of looks from other teams. Question is, is he really dedicated to the Mavericks or is he like anyone else and wants his payday?

Brian Cardinal
34 - $1.3 million 2010-11 salary
Zero problem with Cardinal and him making $1.3. If the Mavs wanted to throw $2 million at him next year, no problem there either. Cardinal's simply useful. He's The Custodian for crying out loud. Would love to see him back as the 10th man.

Peja Stojakovic
34 - $706K 2011-10 salary
In fantasy sports, you are often forced with making tough decisions. Often, you fall in love with a player and you take a hard look and realize they're not performing for you and you can improve in that position. The fact you have to consider is this, "If I look in the free-agent pool in a month, will he still be there?" The answer, most of the time, is "yes." If Brewer, Fernandez, Beaubois, Butler and Dom Jones are parts of this team, that leaves Stojakovic out. However, I bet you can look in on him in December and he'll still be there. Waiting.

'Adrian Beltre, you signed at a six-year, $96 million contract with the Texas Rangers. What are you going to do next?'

"Get injured in Spring Training, of course!"

Remember this, folks. You had that money burning a hole in your pocket. You wanted to blow your load. You did it for a guy who is notorious for contract years.

Out just 10-14 days, but it's a start.

"They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash."

Baseball contract stuff

From near perfection to DFA

Former Rangers great, sexpot and BaD Radio curse victim Gabe Kapler is a Los Angeles Dodger. Seventh team in his career.

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Meanwhile, arbitration junk is happening.

The Rangers avoided arbitration with C.J. Wilson and Nellie Cruz. Wilson will get a respectable $7 million and Cruz will get an insanely low $3.65 million.

Furthermore, the Rangers are attempting to avoid arbitration with Josh Hamilton, Darren O'Day and Frank Francisco.

Frank Francisco
Wants: $4.8 million
Offered: $4.1 million

Darren O'Day
Wants: $1.4 million
Offered: $1.2 million

Josh Hamilton
Wants: $12 million
Offered: $10.3 million

All three are very close. It's thought that all three will come to some middle ground with the franchise before it goes to formal arbitration. Good times.

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Finally, the Detroit Tigers designated Armando Galarraga for assignment. Surely the Rangers are looking to recoop him into the fold.

Friday night Cliff Lee thoughts and Brooklyn Decker

Who'd you rather look at right now? Cliff Lee or Brooklyn Decker?

Allegedly, a group consisting of Chuck Greenberg, money and contract men went to Arkansas to woo Cliff Lee.

They offered him a deal with an assortment of perks. Sounds like Lee can Souper Salad whatever he wants in the deal.

Whether that includes a seventh year is not clear. I was under the impression that the Rangers were going to buckle under the pressure of delivering Lee to its fans no matter the price or commitment.

Then I heard Greenberg interviewed specifically stating that they wouldn't put the franchise in the same hole it was in referring to the Alex Rodriguez deal. Says to me that a seventh year isn't on the table.

Six years is too long for me. Seventh is right out. How about five, $25 million per and Tommy Hunter as his permanent hunting partner?

Rangers rumors, news and good Monday night stuff

AP

The Texas Rangers are denying talking with Andy Pettitte, despite a story that states otherwise. I've always thought Pettitte would be a good fit here and still probably would. However, that probably means that Cliff Lee isn't here.

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Speaking of, the Rangers are heavily rumored to be the ideal spot for Zack Greinke, whose trade from the Kansas City Royals seems like a foregone conclusion. The Rangers will have the pay out of the nose in young, good prospects. The key component is Engel Beltre, the 21-year-old centerfielder in Frisco, had in the Eric Gagne deal from Boston. Again, if Greinke is in Arlington next season, it means that Lee is in pinstripes. Not an awful plan B, but one I'd rather avoid.

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The Rangers got themselves a catcher. They signed 32-year-old Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year, $6.2 million deal. Torrealba is OK. Good defensively and OK enough at the plate. He hit .291 in 2009 in limited time in San Diego. His career high in games is 113 and that was in 2007. I see him playing at least that many in Texas splitting time with Matt Treanor or Taylor Teagarden. The best stat on Torrealba is that he had a 3.14 pitcher's ERA last season, the lowest since 2003. Give him arms and he can make them shine.

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Finally, Frank Francisco is expected to accept arbitration and return to the Rangers. I thought he was gone. We've kind of seen what he has. Then again, how valuable would he have been in three or four of those playoff games? When he's on, he's on. Unhittable. He lost his closer's job in April to Neftali Feliz. Feliz seems bound to the starting rotation. It's thought Alexi Ogando could close, set-up or even start. Therefore, Francisco is pretty important. There's also thought that the Rangers could go after a free agent closer, like Rafael Soriano.

Victor Martinez a Tiger

The Detroit Tigers have nabbed another free agent on the radars of several MLB teams. The Tigers are officially going for it.

The Tigers apparently signed Victor Martinez for four years and $50 million. He apparent was offered three years adn $36 million or four years and $42 million from the Boston Red Sox. No word yet if the Rangers even offered him a deal or not.

That's a lot of money. He's 31 and will be 35 when the deal ends. All for a guy that's probably better suited for first base or the DH spot.

The Rangers are still without a catcher with Bengie Molina probably retiring and Matt Treanor being Matt Treanor.

Miguel Olivo and A.J. Pierzynski are still available and will be much cheaper.

A November Rangers roster move update

A real Loux point

The Texas Rangers pulled a bold stroke yesterday evening signing the Arizona Diamondbacks' former first-round draft pick, Barret Loux, the Texas A&M great.

Loux was taken as the sixth overall in the 2010 draft, but the Diamondbacks didn't sign him due to apparent major shoulder and elbow issues after failing a physical.

Loux is 21. He's a big guy: 6-5, 220. He was great at Texas A&M. From what I remember of the so-called "scouting reports" he was a polished college pitcher -- a guy with already good control of a mid-90s fastball and a good change up. He could be a fast riser.

But, if his arm falls off, what does it matter? Loux was smart enough to go back to Texas A&M in the interim to finish his degree and he threw on the side to the interest of a few teams.

This is what Jon Daniel do. Low investment for a potential high reward. Not unlike Tanner Scheppers, who fell mightily due to injury issues and is now on the brink of the Majors.

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The Rangers added outfielder Engel Beltre, starters Miguel De Los Santos and Wilmer Font and reliever Fabio Castillo to the 40-man roster.

Also, they gave minor-league deals to catcher Kevin Cash, infielder Esteban German and outfield Doug Deeds, who is apparently going to town.

Gettin' Paid: Ron Washington

Gettin' paid

The Texas Rangers decided to give his most-winningest coach in franchise playoff history an extra two years.

Ron Washington and the Rangers agreed to a two-year deal. Wash is third all-time behind Bobby Valentine and Johnny Oates for wins as a manager here.

Two years for the guy that lead this team to its most successful season in history, it's first pennant and first World Series. Two years for the guy that many (mostly white folk) wanted fired eight months ago for a positive drug test due to a cocaine party a summer ago.

He's also a guy that's improved every season, going from 73 wins to 79 wins to 87 wins to 90 wins.

There's two points here:

If you want to look at the Dallas Cowboys (and we must) and wonder how that talent can be mismanaged or whether or not it's really Wade Phillips' fault, look at Washington and the Rangers. He came in with the same attitude as Phillips: They're both easy-going guys that deflect any criticism away from their players. They don't scream or grab players by the facemask. Both have made critical tactical mistakes. They are two good ol' boys.

Yet, Washington has refined a masterful relationship with his players to the point that they'd seemingly do just about anything for him. Phillips is heading the biggest mess of a sports franchise, maybe, in NFL history.

Two, the relationship with Wash could be the first time that the Rangers have some consistency with the manager's position. When Oates and Valentine are your franchise leaders in wins as a manager, that isn't saying anything.

There's never been a year-in, year-out voice for fans and players to embrace. You just wonder when the bottom is going to drop out on things and Wash will be gone.

With the World Series, Wash has bought himself some time. A successful 2011 and he might have bought even more time.

Thankfully, we get another two years of Wash screwing up bullpen decisions! It'll be a blast!