The NBA Draft is tomorrow.
It's damn-near impossible to pile any criticism on the Dallas Mavericks after winning the world championship. It's a hall pass. You can skip any time you want. You can goof up and knock up the principal's daughter. Doesn't matter. You've got a pass.
The Mavericks are there. No matter what they do in free agency or the draft, they can point to the ring and nobody can say a word.
Although this is extremely gratifying, I, for one, do not believe the Mavericks should spend the next decade looking at their ring fingers and hanging on for dear life to June 2011, much like the Dallas Stars did after 1999 or after the Dallas Cowboys after 1995. Now, more than ever, is the right time to get better. If nothing else, younger.
However, as much as I'm convinced that Jason Kidd is great and Dirk Nowitzki otherworldly, I don't think the Mavericks are much good at evaluating and developing young talent. It doesn't help that they get shitty draft picks every year. But other teams (see: San Antonio Spurs) seem to make it work.
With the NBA Draft a mere day away, we might as well consider it another opportunity for Donnie Nelson to take a wild flier on some unathletic white guy from overseas. Once taken, they'll stay in Europe or Turkey or wherever to "develop" and "hone" his game. And we'll never see them again. Adieu, Shan Foster, adieu.
Here are some mocks. Be prepared for vowels.
Yahoo! Sports
26. Davis Bertans
6-10 - 210 - Latvia
Pure shooter. Some say the Spurs are going to take him at No. 29. He's as white as he is Latvian.
Sports Illustrated
26. Justin Harper
6-9 - 228 - Richmond
Considered undersized with the need for bulk to be a power forward. In that case, he seems like a Brandon Bass starter kit. Seems to have more touch from the perimeter. Still, with these first two mocks, we are seeing a definite trend -- the Mavs are happy with their guard and center situation. It's depth at power forward and small forward that need addressing. I don't mind this strategy. Just needs to be blacker.
Hoops Hype
26. Nikola Mirotic
6-10 - 210 - Montenegro
The dude is signed to Real Madrid through 2015. Won't see the NBA until then. This mock has the Mavericks passing Duke's Kyle Singler. Although I abhor white guys, skipping someone has polished as Singler would be a mistake for a quality franchise. Singler helps you right now.
NECN
26. Davis Bertans
Again, has the Mavericks passing on both Singler and Harper.
The Hoop Doctors
26. Nolan Smith
6-4 - 190 - Duke
An unlikely selection considering the Mavericks will have Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, Joe John Barea, Roddy Beaubois and (potentially) Dom Jones vying for minutes at the guard position. How many undersized shooting point guards does a team need?
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Wednesday, 22 June 2011
Wednesday, 18 May 2011
The Western Conference: In review
If this playoffs has done anything in the NBA, it's proven that the regular season means nothing and the line between a No. 8 seed (Memphis) and a No. 1 seed (San Antonio) is minimal.
Or, it represents the fact that the Western Conference is incredibly deep and that if you give a team seven games to win four, you will get upsets. Yes, it's about match-ups and the Grizz were an animal the Spurs didn't have an answer for. Still, the Grizz are not a bad team by any means. They're really good. That's good for the league. That's good for fans.
Los Angeles Lakers -- 59-25 -- 57-25
The Lakers are a good team. Hate them all you want. Still, it's a good team. Something clearly went haywire in the playoffs and if someone wanted to write a book, that'd be a good topic.
Oklahoma City Thunder -- 58-24 -- 55-27
I thought James Harden made a minor jump. Think Russell Westbrook made a huge jump to one of the top 15 players in the league this season. Still, there's room there to get a lot better. That's the reality here: The Thunder will only get better.
Dallas Mavericks -- 51-32 -- 57-25
I thought this was the same team as last year. Clearly not the case. Point to Tyson Chandler all you want. I think Dirk Nowitzki found some even level and turned some corner that we failed to realize was there to turn.
Utah Jazz -- 51-31 -- 39-43
Everything I thought about the Jazz was wrong. Outside of Gordon Heyward, of course. I thought he was pretty good for a rookie.
San Antonio Spurs -- 50-32 -- 61-21
Who knew they had this in them? A superbly run franchise.
Denver Nuggets -- 46-36 -- 50-32
Denver somehow got better without Carmelo Anthony. Figure that out. Just so athletic. With Utah struggling, Denver was bound to pick up a few more wins.
Portland Blazers -- 45-37 -- 48-34
Greg Oden and Brandon Roy couldn't stay together for even a game. Yet, LaMarcus Aldridge took the jump of year and became a beast.
Phoenix Suns -- 44-38 -- 40-42
It's Steve Nash (an aging, expensive Steve Nash) surrounded by poo-poo and bad coaching. Remember when they were athletic and scary?
New Orleans Hornets -- 44-38 -- 46-36
I never quite feared the Hornets. Still, they worked it and got 46 wins despite an insanely unstable future. Chris Paul is strong, to quite strong.
Memphis Grizzlies -- 39-43 -- 46-36
"Zach Randolph didn't get any major MVP consideration a year ago, but was there any other 10 guys that meant more to his team (the Grizz approached .500) than Randolph?" True that. ZBo was fantastic and no team brought it defensively more than Memphis. Just athletic black dudes working hard, wreaking havoc.
Los Angeles Clippers -- 36-46 -- 32-50
I don't understand why they weren't better. I could not have estimated Blake Griffin being any better. I'm sure Baron Davis' departure hurt in addition to Eric Gordon's injuries.
Sacramento Kings -- 35-47 -- 24-58
The Kings are on arrest alert. No less than four Kings will be arrested this summer. Look for it. Ironically, the Kings were almost moved and yet everyone fought to keep them. Fans, of course, and city leaders wanted them there. Funny thing, there's not a more unlikable team in the NBA. You never want to lose a sports franchise, but would most of Sacramento really miss this Kings team?
Houston Rockets -- 30-52 -- 43-39
Blow. Them. Up. All of them. Including Luis Scola and any youngsters. Sell high.
Golden State Warriors -- 24-58 -- 36-46
Speaking of, see what you can for Monta Ellis. No doubt he has a ridiculous, untradeable contract, but test the waters. Blow it up.
Minnesota Timberwolves -- 19-63 -- 17-65
Chris Paul is superstar No. 1 with zero help. Kevin Love is top three. There is little reason why he is not on a team winning 50 games a year.
Or, it represents the fact that the Western Conference is incredibly deep and that if you give a team seven games to win four, you will get upsets. Yes, it's about match-ups and the Grizz were an animal the Spurs didn't have an answer for. Still, the Grizz are not a bad team by any means. They're really good. That's good for the league. That's good for fans.
Los Angeles Lakers -- 59-25 -- 57-25
The Lakers are a good team. Hate them all you want. Still, it's a good team. Something clearly went haywire in the playoffs and if someone wanted to write a book, that'd be a good topic.
Oklahoma City Thunder -- 58-24 -- 55-27
I thought James Harden made a minor jump. Think Russell Westbrook made a huge jump to one of the top 15 players in the league this season. Still, there's room there to get a lot better. That's the reality here: The Thunder will only get better.
Dallas Mavericks -- 51-32 -- 57-25
I thought this was the same team as last year. Clearly not the case. Point to Tyson Chandler all you want. I think Dirk Nowitzki found some even level and turned some corner that we failed to realize was there to turn.
Utah Jazz -- 51-31 -- 39-43
Everything I thought about the Jazz was wrong. Outside of Gordon Heyward, of course. I thought he was pretty good for a rookie.
San Antonio Spurs -- 50-32 -- 61-21
Who knew they had this in them? A superbly run franchise.
Denver Nuggets -- 46-36 -- 50-32
Denver somehow got better without Carmelo Anthony. Figure that out. Just so athletic. With Utah struggling, Denver was bound to pick up a few more wins.
Portland Blazers -- 45-37 -- 48-34
Greg Oden and Brandon Roy couldn't stay together for even a game. Yet, LaMarcus Aldridge took the jump of year and became a beast.
Phoenix Suns -- 44-38 -- 40-42
It's Steve Nash (an aging, expensive Steve Nash) surrounded by poo-poo and bad coaching. Remember when they were athletic and scary?
New Orleans Hornets -- 44-38 -- 46-36
I never quite feared the Hornets. Still, they worked it and got 46 wins despite an insanely unstable future. Chris Paul is strong, to quite strong.
Memphis Grizzlies -- 39-43 -- 46-36
"Zach Randolph didn't get any major MVP consideration a year ago, but was there any other 10 guys that meant more to his team (the Grizz approached .500) than Randolph?" True that. ZBo was fantastic and no team brought it defensively more than Memphis. Just athletic black dudes working hard, wreaking havoc.
Los Angeles Clippers -- 36-46 -- 32-50
I don't understand why they weren't better. I could not have estimated Blake Griffin being any better. I'm sure Baron Davis' departure hurt in addition to Eric Gordon's injuries.
Sacramento Kings -- 35-47 -- 24-58
The Kings are on arrest alert. No less than four Kings will be arrested this summer. Look for it. Ironically, the Kings were almost moved and yet everyone fought to keep them. Fans, of course, and city leaders wanted them there. Funny thing, there's not a more unlikable team in the NBA. You never want to lose a sports franchise, but would most of Sacramento really miss this Kings team?
Houston Rockets -- 30-52 -- 43-39
Blow. Them. Up. All of them. Including Luis Scola and any youngsters. Sell high.
Golden State Warriors -- 24-58 -- 36-46
Speaking of, see what you can for Monta Ellis. No doubt he has a ridiculous, untradeable contract, but test the waters. Blow it up.
Minnesota Timberwolves -- 19-63 -- 17-65
Chris Paul is superstar No. 1 with zero help. Kevin Love is top three. There is little reason why he is not on a team winning 50 games a year.
Labels:
Mavericks,
NBA,
Predictions
Tuesday, 17 May 2011
The Dallas Mavericks: Why the fuck not?
Durant, Oklahom
Durant, Oklahoma
Durant, OklahomaThe Dallas Mavericks begin their fourth Western Conference Finals in franchise history tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
I'm tired of doubting the Mavericks. I doubted them against Portland. I doubted them against Los Angeles.
It goes against everything that is right and normal in the world. But the Mavericks are winning games and no matter what I think of Oklahoma City or the Mavericks, I sure as hell am not picking against the latter.
Mavericks in seven, because I can't imagine it going just five and I don't think the Mavericks will win it on the road. Too tough. That goddamn city is nuts.
Five things:
Russell Westbrook
I don't care what happened in the regular season. Westbrook played like a top 15 player in the league all season and he is fit to get the Mavericks fits. He's big and quick. He can pound the smaller guys and by Jason Kidd any time he wants. Westbrook should score 25 points a game, and if he doesn't, the Thunder are screwed.
Rust v. Rest
The debate of the long rest versus fighting off rust will get an answer. Frankly, if there was a definitive answer to whether long layoffs help a team, we'd have it. I think the Mavericks might be a little rusty to start, and, ideally, it'll shake off with time. Can the Thunder pounce?
Mis-match-ups
One thing that worries me about the Thunder is that the Mavericks' strengths defensively (quick, smart guards and bodies frontcourt) do not match up to the Thunder's strengths offensively. The Thunder have zero length and Kendrick Perkins is a nice piece in the middle, but he's not a guy like LaMarcus Aldridge or Pau Gasol or Andy Bynum that needs constant attention. The Thunder depend on the George Gervin-like Kevin Durant and Westbrook. As noted, Westbrook should punish the Mavericks. As for Durant, the Mavericks will need an answer. He's no warm body just jacking up shots. He's won the scoring title two straight seasons. He's a super-duper-star. You can't imagine that Shawn Marion will stop him for seven games.
Experience
Does it really matter? Do the Chicago Bulls have experience or any more experience than the Thunder? To me, it's bullshit. The idea that a team "doesn't know how to win these type of games" seems lame. It's convenient. Why can't a team just not execute. Happens all the time. Hopefully the Mavericks aren't hanging their hats on experience.
Peaking
Did the Mavericks absolutely peak against the Los Angeles Lakers? Let's face it, they played a nearly flawless series and that game four was otherworldly. There's a good chance they'll never play that well again. In a perfect storm (or a nearly-perfect storm), the Thunder run the Mavericks out of the gym. I don't know if the Thunder have that in them; on the other hand, I don't know if the Mavericks have the legs or guts to go seven games with the young Thunder.
Labels:
Mavericks,
Playoffs,
Predictions
Monday, 16 May 2011
The East Conference, rediscovered
I'm not scare of scrutiny. I do not fear my past observations or prognostications. I welcome the criticism.
Today, kids, we look at my half-baked predictions for the NBA and we wonder if I should be able to write about professional sports again.
Predicted Record
Actual Record
Miami Heat -- 60-22 -- 58-24
If you thought the Heat would fail you are an idiot. I would also venture to say that you might be a little racist. Yeah. I went there. This is the NBA. It's where you can literally half-ass your way to 40 wins most seasons with a superstar. With another superstar and a very good third gun, you can get into the 50s. The Spurs and Mavericks have done it for a decade.
Milwaukee Bucks -- 51-31 -- 35-47
A swing and a miss. Thought they would take a step up and pull the trigger on a mid-season trade. Injuries ate them alive. Only Keyon Dooling and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute played more than 70 games.
Boston Celtics -- 50-32 -- 56-26
I think of them as the Spurs of the east. A ton of veterans. An exciting point guard that can tip the scales of a game or series at will. I do wonder if they have the fire anymore. I also wonder what they will look like in a year ... or two in case of work stoppage.
Chicago Bulls -- 49-33-- 62-20
Initially, I liked the team and I thought very highly of Derrick Rose. Why I didn't have them at at least 50 wins is a mystery. We're learning as the post-season lumbers on that their bench and role players are a lot more impactful than we might have thought.
Atlanta Hawks -- 46-36 -- 44-38
The Hawks find themselves in a really tough spot. They're peaking as a roster and franchise right at the moment when the Bulls, Heat, Celtics and others are playing otherworldly with superior talent. Eight years ago, the Hawks would have ruled the east. They're like the Cleveland Cavaliers of the 1990s. Good, but two tiers below the competition. \
Charlotte Bobcats -- 41-41 -- 34-48
Blech. A really good example of a franchise in need of shutting down. Also, proof that ex-superstars should not be handed keys to a franchise.
Detroit Pistons -- 25-67 -- 30-52
Remember like eight years ago when the Pistons were really good and winning a ton of games? How they can in good conscience keep Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton is beyond me. Throwing bad money at Chuck Villanueva and Ben Gordon in addition to some bad drafts have sunk them.
Today, kids, we look at my half-baked predictions for the NBA and we wonder if I should be able to write about professional sports again.
Predicted Record
Actual Record
Miami Heat -- 60-22 -- 58-24
If you thought the Heat would fail you are an idiot. I would also venture to say that you might be a little racist. Yeah. I went there. This is the NBA. It's where you can literally half-ass your way to 40 wins most seasons with a superstar. With another superstar and a very good third gun, you can get into the 50s. The Spurs and Mavericks have done it for a decade.
Orlando Magic -- 58-24 -- 52-30
Yuck. You can't like the make-up of this team and this includes Dwight Howard. More than any other sport, the NBA is a series of contridictions. We hate the "me-first" player that shoots 40 percent and takes 30 shots a game. Yet, we like to criticize a player like Howard who should have Moses Malone-type numbers, but failes to assert himself game in and game out. Five years from now, we might look at Howard and another player like we do Kobe Bryant and Shaq O'Neal. It's no longer a league where one superstar does all the lifting and the day and age of that superstar completely dominating outside of the team dynamic is gone.
Milwaukee Bucks -- 51-31 -- 35-47
A swing and a miss. Thought they would take a step up and pull the trigger on a mid-season trade. Injuries ate them alive. Only Keyon Dooling and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute played more than 70 games.
Boston Celtics -- 50-32 -- 56-26
I think of them as the Spurs of the east. A ton of veterans. An exciting point guard that can tip the scales of a game or series at will. I do wonder if they have the fire anymore. I also wonder what they will look like in a year ... or two in case of work stoppage.
Chicago Bulls -- 49-33-- 62-20
Initially, I liked the team and I thought very highly of Derrick Rose. Why I didn't have them at at least 50 wins is a mystery. We're learning as the post-season lumbers on that their bench and role players are a lot more impactful than we might have thought.
Atlanta Hawks -- 46-36 -- 44-38
The Hawks find themselves in a really tough spot. They're peaking as a roster and franchise right at the moment when the Bulls, Heat, Celtics and others are playing otherworldly with superior talent. Eight years ago, the Hawks would have ruled the east. They're like the Cleveland Cavaliers of the 1990s. Good, but two tiers below the competition. \
Washington Wizards -- 43-39 -- 23-59
"There is a 100 percent chance that I screw this up by 20 games." I called it.
New York Knicks -- 42-40 -- 42-40
Hindsight is a bitch. Looking back, you play out the season, probably still wind up 42-40 with the players you had, keep all those players, sign Carmelo Anthony in the off-season.New York Knicks -- 42-40 -- 42-40
Charlotte Bobcats -- 41-41 -- 34-48
Blech. A really good example of a franchise in need of shutting down. Also, proof that ex-superstars should not be handed keys to a franchise.
Cleveland Cavaliers -- 38-44 -- 19-63
I overestimated one thing: Pride. I clearly didn't think the Cavs would do much. However, I thought Lebron's snub would light a fire under their asses and get them to within throwing distance of .500. Looks now like Lebron was pretty good.
Philadelphia 76ers -- 35-47 -- 41-41
Ironically, Evan Turner could not have had a worse season, Andre Igoudala plays insane defense and Elton Brand actually turned in an OK season.
Ironically, Evan Turner could not have had a worse season, Andre Igoudala plays insane defense and Elton Brand actually turned in an OK season.
Toronto Raptors -- 35-47 -- 22-60
Say what you will about Chris Bosh, but that was a 40-win team a year ago with him in the line-up.Indiana Pacers -- 32-50 -- 37-45
Although my prediction here is not far off, I did not think 37 wins would get you into the playoffs. The world and NBA are a better place when Indiana is good. Let's hope next season gets them a winning record.
Although my prediction here is not far off, I did not think 37 wins would get you into the playoffs. The world and NBA are a better place when Indiana is good. Let's hope next season gets them a winning record.
New Jersey Nets -- 25-47 -- 24-48
The Nets will get better. Give Avery Johnson time.
Detroit Pistons -- 25-67 -- 30-52
Remember like eight years ago when the Pistons were really good and winning a ton of games? How they can in good conscience keep Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton is beyond me. Throwing bad money at Chuck Villanueva and Ben Gordon in addition to some bad drafts have sunk them.
Labels:
NBA,
Predictions
Friday, 29 April 2011
Quick Mavericks take
Congratulations to the Dallas Mavericks. They beat the Portland Trailblazers 103-96 on the road last night to clinch their first-round victory.
Let's consider Dirk Nowitzki.
We can comment about the contributions (or relative lack thereof) of Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler or whoever.
The fact is, this team goes as far as Dirk Nowitzki is really willing or able to carry them. They don't sniff the second round without him and they won't sniff the Western Conference Finals without him.
I think he does need to play better. He didn't shoot all that great outside of a 11-17 showing last night. Still, he battled, drive to the basket and stayed patient. He didn't let the physicality of the games get to him. This is unlike the Nowitzki of the past.
The guy is simply phenomenal. We'll never see another like him.
****
To the Los Angeles Lakers because I'm going out of town.
My prediction: Los Angeles Lakers in 7. Here's why.
Lamar Odom
Scares me to death. Above all other Lakers, he's the guy that they might not have a strong answer for. He's averaged 15-9-4 in his career against Dallas and it always seems like he's doing bad stuff against them. For one, he's a big guy. At 6-10, he's way more athletic that you might think. And quick. Kind of a tweener in some regards except that he can rebound, handle the rock and cause havoc. I guess Shawn Marion and Dirk Nowitzki will have hands in covering him. I just got a bad feeling about that guy.
Dirk/Pau
Pau Gasol never worried me much, on his own. He's the inside Dirk Nowitzki: A Euro with tons of questions, moments of greatness, times of doubt and a guy that many think need to be omega dog. Except Gasol's game is near the basket. His shot doesn't go down, his ability to still get close or get to the line is far better. However, if we finish this series and we say, "Pau Gasol was as good as Dirk Nowitzki," then the Mavericks clearly have problems.
Kobe
The dude has rings. What else do you want to say? Talk about how he's lost a step or two. Talk about his ruddy knees. Talk about his lackluster shooting nights all you want. Still scares the bejesus out of me with five seconds left in a tie game.
No Fear At The AAC
I don't think the Lakers have any problems coming to the American Airlines Center and winning. They've done it for ... oh ... the past 30 years. Those dudes will win anywhere. They tied with the best home record in the West and were a half game behind ... Dallas for the best road record. By the way, everyone kind of thought the Lakers were on the ropes with New Orleans. Until they finished them up on the road. The Lakers are still good. Don't talk yourself out of this.
Matt Barnes
The Dirk-killer. Not saying he's near the player he was in 2007 in Golden State. Still, the dude is brimming with confidence at his lowest point. I think Nowitzki is going to get a ton of looks from Phil Jackson; Pau to Odom to Artest to Bynum. Barnes could be the lynchpin.
Sloppinness Is Next To Godliness
The Mavericks did win their series against Portland. However, I tend to think the Mavs would have been in trouble against a better team. Do the Lakers lose with Jason Terry committing two over-and-back fouls in the fourth quarter? I think the Mavs are too sloppy at times -- inopportune times -- for my taste.
Phil
The reason the Lakers pounce on mistakes. The Zen master. There's a 100 percent chance Rick "No" Carlisle is outcoached. The only hope is that the Lakers are outplayed.
Let's consider Dirk Nowitzki.
We can comment about the contributions (or relative lack thereof) of Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler or whoever.
The fact is, this team goes as far as Dirk Nowitzki is really willing or able to carry them. They don't sniff the second round without him and they won't sniff the Western Conference Finals without him.
I think he does need to play better. He didn't shoot all that great outside of a 11-17 showing last night. Still, he battled, drive to the basket and stayed patient. He didn't let the physicality of the games get to him. This is unlike the Nowitzki of the past.
The guy is simply phenomenal. We'll never see another like him.
****
To the Los Angeles Lakers because I'm going out of town.
My prediction: Los Angeles Lakers in 7. Here's why.
Lamar Odom
Scares me to death. Above all other Lakers, he's the guy that they might not have a strong answer for. He's averaged 15-9-4 in his career against Dallas and it always seems like he's doing bad stuff against them. For one, he's a big guy. At 6-10, he's way more athletic that you might think. And quick. Kind of a tweener in some regards except that he can rebound, handle the rock and cause havoc. I guess Shawn Marion and Dirk Nowitzki will have hands in covering him. I just got a bad feeling about that guy.
Dirk/Pau
Pau Gasol never worried me much, on his own. He's the inside Dirk Nowitzki: A Euro with tons of questions, moments of greatness, times of doubt and a guy that many think need to be omega dog. Except Gasol's game is near the basket. His shot doesn't go down, his ability to still get close or get to the line is far better. However, if we finish this series and we say, "Pau Gasol was as good as Dirk Nowitzki," then the Mavericks clearly have problems.
Kobe
The dude has rings. What else do you want to say? Talk about how he's lost a step or two. Talk about his ruddy knees. Talk about his lackluster shooting nights all you want. Still scares the bejesus out of me with five seconds left in a tie game.
No Fear At The AAC
I don't think the Lakers have any problems coming to the American Airlines Center and winning. They've done it for ... oh ... the past 30 years. Those dudes will win anywhere. They tied with the best home record in the West and were a half game behind ... Dallas for the best road record. By the way, everyone kind of thought the Lakers were on the ropes with New Orleans. Until they finished them up on the road. The Lakers are still good. Don't talk yourself out of this.
Matt Barnes
The Dirk-killer. Not saying he's near the player he was in 2007 in Golden State. Still, the dude is brimming with confidence at his lowest point. I think Nowitzki is going to get a ton of looks from Phil Jackson; Pau to Odom to Artest to Bynum. Barnes could be the lynchpin.
Sloppinness Is Next To Godliness
The Mavericks did win their series against Portland. However, I tend to think the Mavs would have been in trouble against a better team. Do the Lakers lose with Jason Terry committing two over-and-back fouls in the fourth quarter? I think the Mavs are too sloppy at times -- inopportune times -- for my taste.
Phil
The reason the Lakers pounce on mistakes. The Zen master. There's a 100 percent chance Rick "No" Carlisle is outcoached. The only hope is that the Lakers are outplayed.
Labels:
Mavericks,
Playoffs,
Predictions
Saturday, 16 April 2011
Mavericks-Trailblazers: Playoff magic!
In the last couple of days, I've gotten caught up in the rhetoric supporting the Dallas Mavericks in their playoff series against the Portland Trailblazers.
Maybe -- just maybe -- we've exaggerated the Mavericks' weaknesses.
However, I think this lack of faith in the Mavericks is equated to being swept in the first round. I think those of us who have been pessimistic about the Mavericks' chances are merely stating that the gap between the third and sixth seeds or nine wins is not has vast as you might expect.
Disregard the standings. The Blazers are not significantly worse than the Mavericks. Therefore, if all things are even, you must look at intangibles. Who is hungrier? Healthier? Younger? Who's been playing better? Above all, I think match-ups matter the most. How can you prevent the opponent's better players from being better and how can the opponent stop your better players?
Here are the keys to this series:
LaMarcus Aldridge
Dirk Nowitzki is not the only superstar in this series. Aldridge has taken a gigantic step this season. He is a legit MVP candidate and one of the top 20 players in the league. How do you stop him? Do you put Dirk Nowitzki on him? Tyson Chandler? And if so, do you leave the door open for Marcus Camby going crazy? Do you dig in your depth for Ian Mahinmi or an athletic sort? Reverse the situation. Aldridge has become a true bug for Dirk Nowitzki. Possibly no one plays Nowitzki better. Alredge is long and athletic. He gets in Nowitzki's grill and knows how to pester our Teutonic friend into pure frustration. It's maddening to see one player being able to harrass the Mavericks on both ends of the court.
The Big Quarter
Look at the Mavericks of the past month and I beg you find me a game in which they haven't allowed 30+ points in a quarter. It's a big reason they've struggled against good teams. Against bad ones, you can almost always make up for it. Bad teams are bad for a reason. However, against playoff teams, you can't allow quarters like that. They take advantage and they're good enough defensively the other three quarters to make that one good quarter stick. Should the Mavericks lose this series, I would dare anyone to find me that one quarter in the game when the Mavs gave up the ghost.
Rebounding
I've harped on rebounding the entire season. It's one thing the Mavericks should be really good at, but they're not. With all the heighth the Mavericks have, you might think they'd be in the top five in the league. Instead they're stuck in the middle despite Jason Kidd, Tyson Chandler, Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion and Brendan Haywood getting minutes. As mediocre as the Mavericks have been, the Trailblazers are awful despite, again, having Camby and Aldridge. It's the guards that don't help out and bring down the average. The Mavericks averaged nearly two rebounds more per game than the Blazers, although the latter finished in the bottom five in the league. In order for either team to win, they must have the rebounding advantage.
Age
As the Mavericks are licking their wounds and trying to rest up for the playoffs, the Blazers probably are too young and dumb to realize they aren't supposed to win against the playoff-grizzled Mavs. Andre Miller and Marcus Camby are the only Blazers over the age of 30. Veteran Gerald Wallace is nine years into his career and he's just 28. Nic Batum is 22. Aldridge is 25. Wesley Matthews is 24. Not that the Blazers are the healthiest bunch in the league. But who gets out of bed easier this morning?
Rotation, Rotation, Rotation
As of this morning, no one could probably accurately guess Rick Carlisle's rotation for the playoffs. As is the norm, a coach typically has a seven- or eight-man rotation for the playoffs. Guys that might have helped you throughout the year might find themselves sitting most of a whole series or playoffs on the bench. If Nowitzki, Kidd, Chandler, Marion and Terry are sure-fire, that leaves a starting shooting guard (DeShawn Stevenson) and I guess Haywood and J.J. Barea? That's eight. Is Mahinmi going to get minutes against Aldridge? Where does Peja Stojakovic fit? Frankly, do any of these guys being on the court for 20 minutes instill any amount of confidence? The Mavericks' depth is illusion.
Prediction
\Trailblazers in seven
Talk about all of the known weaknesses for the Mavericks. However, I think we're forced to contend with the perceived strengths. The bench is not nearly as good or deep as we think. The defense has hid behind the zone all year. Rebounding is a huge chore that the Mavericks do not do well. All will sink this team.
Maybe -- just maybe -- we've exaggerated the Mavericks' weaknesses.
However, I think this lack of faith in the Mavericks is equated to being swept in the first round. I think those of us who have been pessimistic about the Mavericks' chances are merely stating that the gap between the third and sixth seeds or nine wins is not has vast as you might expect.
Disregard the standings. The Blazers are not significantly worse than the Mavericks. Therefore, if all things are even, you must look at intangibles. Who is hungrier? Healthier? Younger? Who's been playing better? Above all, I think match-ups matter the most. How can you prevent the opponent's better players from being better and how can the opponent stop your better players?
Here are the keys to this series:
LaMarcus Aldridge
Dirk Nowitzki is not the only superstar in this series. Aldridge has taken a gigantic step this season. He is a legit MVP candidate and one of the top 20 players in the league. How do you stop him? Do you put Dirk Nowitzki on him? Tyson Chandler? And if so, do you leave the door open for Marcus Camby going crazy? Do you dig in your depth for Ian Mahinmi or an athletic sort? Reverse the situation. Aldridge has become a true bug for Dirk Nowitzki. Possibly no one plays Nowitzki better. Alredge is long and athletic. He gets in Nowitzki's grill and knows how to pester our Teutonic friend into pure frustration. It's maddening to see one player being able to harrass the Mavericks on both ends of the court.
The Big Quarter
Look at the Mavericks of the past month and I beg you find me a game in which they haven't allowed 30+ points in a quarter. It's a big reason they've struggled against good teams. Against bad ones, you can almost always make up for it. Bad teams are bad for a reason. However, against playoff teams, you can't allow quarters like that. They take advantage and they're good enough defensively the other three quarters to make that one good quarter stick. Should the Mavericks lose this series, I would dare anyone to find me that one quarter in the game when the Mavs gave up the ghost.
Rebounding
I've harped on rebounding the entire season. It's one thing the Mavericks should be really good at, but they're not. With all the heighth the Mavericks have, you might think they'd be in the top five in the league. Instead they're stuck in the middle despite Jason Kidd, Tyson Chandler, Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion and Brendan Haywood getting minutes. As mediocre as the Mavericks have been, the Trailblazers are awful despite, again, having Camby and Aldridge. It's the guards that don't help out and bring down the average. The Mavericks averaged nearly two rebounds more per game than the Blazers, although the latter finished in the bottom five in the league. In order for either team to win, they must have the rebounding advantage.
Age
As the Mavericks are licking their wounds and trying to rest up for the playoffs, the Blazers probably are too young and dumb to realize they aren't supposed to win against the playoff-grizzled Mavs. Andre Miller and Marcus Camby are the only Blazers over the age of 30. Veteran Gerald Wallace is nine years into his career and he's just 28. Nic Batum is 22. Aldridge is 25. Wesley Matthews is 24. Not that the Blazers are the healthiest bunch in the league. But who gets out of bed easier this morning?
Rotation, Rotation, Rotation
As of this morning, no one could probably accurately guess Rick Carlisle's rotation for the playoffs. As is the norm, a coach typically has a seven- or eight-man rotation for the playoffs. Guys that might have helped you throughout the year might find themselves sitting most of a whole series or playoffs on the bench. If Nowitzki, Kidd, Chandler, Marion and Terry are sure-fire, that leaves a starting shooting guard (DeShawn Stevenson) and I guess Haywood and J.J. Barea? That's eight. Is Mahinmi going to get minutes against Aldridge? Where does Peja Stojakovic fit? Frankly, do any of these guys being on the court for 20 minutes instill any amount of confidence? The Mavericks' depth is illusion.
Prediction
\Trailblazers in seven
Talk about all of the known weaknesses for the Mavericks. However, I think we're forced to contend with the perceived strengths. The bench is not nearly as good or deep as we think. The defense has hid behind the zone all year. Rebounding is a huge chore that the Mavericks do not do well. All will sink this team.
Labels:
Mavericks,
Playoffs,
Predictions
Thursday, 14 April 2011
Predictably predicting the NBA Playoffs
The NBA Playoffs are here. So are my crappy predictions.
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
I'd just like to state that its a better NBA when the Indiana Pacers are good. Unfortunately, they fell to the eighth seed to face the Bulls. The Bulls do many things well. They defend and rebound exceptionally well. That wins playoff series.
Bulls in 4
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers have one card to play: Andre Iguodala's defense. The dude is a stud. However, there's one of him and three of Lebron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. Miami will go as far as Bosh is willing to play. Find a Miami loss in the regular season and I'll show you a simply awful game from Bosh.
Miami in 5
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
I-N-T-E-R-E-S-T-E-D. The Knicks have my attention. Although I fervently believe a Mike D'Antoni-coached team will never sniff the Finals, they are still interesting and fun to watch. It's the league's best offense against the league's best defense. Worlds will collide! I think missing Kendrick Perkins matters, the Celtics have sputtered, the Knicks have righted the ship a little and something's got to give.
New York in 6
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
No way the Hawks rebound from Dominique Wilkins getting punched. Aside from that, they're a flawed team. Orlando's creeping too much. Too quiet. No enough headlines. I see them going under the radar.
Orlando in 4
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Spurs are highly susceptible to the upset. But I don't think it's coming here. The Grizzlie's best bet is to finish off Manu Ginobili with a tire iron and absolutely run the Spurs out of the gym. Memphis can D it up. They got some match-ups. Can Tony Allen check Ginobili or George Hill? Can Z-Bo go toe to toe with Duncan? Did I just write that sentence?
San Antonio in 6
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets
The Lakers probably love this match-up. The Hornets are not deep and if you can wrangle Chris Paul and decrease his effectiveness, they're an easy out.
Los Angeles in 4
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Could be a great series, probably the best on paper in the Western Conference. The Nuggets play their guts out for their coach with cancer and to prove all the doubters wrong. The Thunder just being good. In the NBA, more so than other leagues, teams with the best player are often rewarded. Just look at who has all the rings. What the Celtics lost in Kendrick Perkins the Thunder gained.
Oklahoma City in 6
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
I'd just like to state that its a better NBA when the Indiana Pacers are good. Unfortunately, they fell to the eighth seed to face the Bulls. The Bulls do many things well. They defend and rebound exceptionally well. That wins playoff series.
Bulls in 4
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers have one card to play: Andre Iguodala's defense. The dude is a stud. However, there's one of him and three of Lebron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. Miami will go as far as Bosh is willing to play. Find a Miami loss in the regular season and I'll show you a simply awful game from Bosh.
Miami in 5
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
I-N-T-E-R-E-S-T-E-D. The Knicks have my attention. Although I fervently believe a Mike D'Antoni-coached team will never sniff the Finals, they are still interesting and fun to watch. It's the league's best offense against the league's best defense. Worlds will collide! I think missing Kendrick Perkins matters, the Celtics have sputtered, the Knicks have righted the ship a little and something's got to give.
New York in 6
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
No way the Hawks rebound from Dominique Wilkins getting punched. Aside from that, they're a flawed team. Orlando's creeping too much. Too quiet. No enough headlines. I see them going under the radar.
Orlando in 4
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Spurs are highly susceptible to the upset. But I don't think it's coming here. The Grizzlie's best bet is to finish off Manu Ginobili with a tire iron and absolutely run the Spurs out of the gym. Memphis can D it up. They got some match-ups. Can Tony Allen check Ginobili or George Hill? Can Z-Bo go toe to toe with Duncan? Did I just write that sentence?
San Antonio in 6
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets
The Lakers probably love this match-up. The Hornets are not deep and if you can wrangle Chris Paul and decrease his effectiveness, they're an easy out.
Los Angeles in 4
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Could be a great series, probably the best on paper in the Western Conference. The Nuggets play their guts out for their coach with cancer and to prove all the doubters wrong. The Thunder just being good. In the NBA, more so than other leagues, teams with the best player are often rewarded. Just look at who has all the rings. What the Celtics lost in Kendrick Perkins the Thunder gained.
Oklahoma City in 6
Labels:
NBA,
Playoffs,
Predictions
Friday, 1 April 2011
Zero-hour Rangers thoughts, feelings, fears and hopes
Jon Lester will kick-off the Texas Rangers' 2011 campaign in a couple of hours at the Ballpark.
Here are thoughts:
Darren O'Day scares me. Maybe he rights the ship. But he wasn't right in Spring Training. Has the clock struck midnight? Was it always too good to be true?
****
What if Derek Holland's figured it out?
****
With all the talk of the rotation, line-up and bullpen, little discussion has been had on defense. Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler present a formidable left half of the infield. If the pitchers can just keep the ball low ...
****
Now that we're on the subject, Adrian Beltre's completely fallen off the radar. I think he's a waste of money. What if he proves me wrong?
****
I think Mike Young's going to have a monster first half of the season for the Rangers. And a so-so second half of the season for the Cardinals or Rockies.
****
Moreso, Young's production at the plate went up when he moved to the less-strenuous third base. As a designated hitter, I think he'll be even better. He's playing angry and he's playing without the strain of defense on those legs.
****
I think we see significantly less Darren Oliver this year. I think he and Arthur Rhodes get about 40 innings or less.
****
If Nellie Cruz gets 550 at-bats, he's square in the MVP talk. At least 40 home runs, 40 doubles and 25 stolen bases.
****
The bullpen seems extremely suspect. Pedro Strop and Mark Lowe make all the worries float away.
****
Prediction: Ian Kinsler: 577 at-bats - 35 doubles - 17 home runs - 30 steals - .310 average - .410 OBP.
****
I'm not currently worried about the pitching. Remember, this team did pretty well under similar circumstances a year ago before getting Cliff Lee. By July, Chris Davis and Mike Young could be pretty good trade bait for desperate contenders seeking infield help. Some team will be willing to load up on prospects, potentially ones that could help the bullpen or rotation.
****
We will fall in love with Yorvit Torrealba. He'll give more at the plate than we think and he'll be great behind it.
****
Fascinated by Alexi Ogando as a starter. Wonder now where Omar Beltre would've fit given the current circumstances.
****
Julio Borbon will fail. I feel.
****
I think we'll see Tanner Scheppers, Brett Tomko, Endy Chavez, Chris Davis, Cody Eppley, Esteban German, Taylor Teagarden and Mike Kirkman in Arlington this season.
****
The last back-to-back American League MVP winner was Roger Maris in 1961 and 1962.
****
Prediction: 18 wins for C.J. Wilson, 16 for Colby Lewis, 11 for Derek Holland and 10 for Tommy Hunter.
****
Potential internal mid-season help: Hunter, Scooter Feldman and Brandon Webb.
****
Mason Tobin is Darren O'Day 2.0. Another trash heap find for GM Jon Daniels.
Labels:
Predictions,
Rangers
Thursday, 31 March 2011
The AL West
Predicting the 2011 MLB season. Without a net. Past embarrassments: NL West, NL Central, NL East, AL East and AL Central.
Texas Rangers -- 92-70

Note: Should the Athletics ever get their offensive act together, the Rangers time here in the spotlight is very limited. The Rangers already have a crapload against them and it is not going to be easy. It might never be easy for the Rangers. However, players will contribute, heroes will be made and things will work out. For now. Pluck can take you only so far.
Oakland Athletics -- 88-74

What is this?! The Rangers West? Rich Harden. Willie Moscoso. Brandon McCarthy. Cripes. Luckily, the Athletics have a very salty rotation with Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez (who I think wins 18 games, at least) and Trevor Cahill (very possible Cy Young candidate). The A's pitching makes them incredibly scary. Very scary. Downright frigtening. Unfortunately, they can't score. Collection of hitters we've seen before: Josh Willingham, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Conor Jackson, Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus and CoCo Crisp. Same ol' names, same ol' results.
California Angels -- 81-81
Lot to like, still. Lot to dislike. Did you know their starting outfield has an average age of 35? That Jered Weaver struck out 233 and posted a 3.01 ERA and went 13-12. They can't score. I can't imagine that improving with Vernon Wells.
Seattle Mariners -- 59-103
Could seriously get some guys on the bags: Ichiro, Milton Bradley and Jack Cust are all on the team. If the Mariners paid anyone to drive them all in, they'd be set. That and having a reliable starter that isn't named "Felix" are good starts. By the end of the season, the Mariners will field the best Triple A team in Major League Baseball.
Labels:
MLB,
Predictions,
Rangers
Monday, 28 March 2011
The AL Central
Predicting the 2011 MLB season. Without a net. Past embarrassments: NL West, NL Central, NL East and AL East.
Minnesota Twins -- 97-65

Pitchers that throw strikes. Hitters that put the wood on the ball. An MVP candidate. How is Justin Morneau's head? Seems like that concussion lingered. Did you realize Jim Thome was so close (11) to 600 home runs? I think they feast on Indians, Royals and Tigers.
Chicago White Sox -- 85-77
I think the Pale Hose need a number of things: Jake Peavy for 30 starts, a duplicate year from Alex Rios, consistentcy from Carlos Quentin and a solid bullpen. I'm not willing to bet all that will happen. Getting Adam Dunn could help give Paul Konerko a 40-homer year.
Detroit Tigers -- 80-82

I don't know if they're any good. I think they're better than Cleveland, and not as good as Chicago. So, I stick them here. I don't know what to think of that old line-up. It's old. Victor Martinez provides a little pop. Jack Benoit in the bullpen will help, especially when Joel Zumaya blows out his arm.
Cleveland Indians -- 72-90

Finished 2010 on a high note, going 7-3 in final 10. The Tribe might be too dumb to realize how bad they're supposed to be. Extremely young team that can only get better with time.
Kansas City Royals -- 66-96

I want the best for the Royals. They are extremely young. They might be a team looking to prove something without Zack Greinke. Their cornerstone -- Billy Butler -- is in his mid-20s and one of the best pure hitters in the league. I might wind up wrong on them.
Labels:
MLB,
Predictions
Thursday, 24 March 2011
The AL East
Predicting the 2011 MLB season. Without a net. Past embarrassments: NL West, NL Central and NL East.
Boston Red Sox -- 96-66

The big spenders. Add Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to an already not-awful line-up. I'd ask who exactly is pitching for them, but it may not matter. Health is a major issue. Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Josh Beckett and several others all missed significant time last season. If they can't go the entire year, free agents may not matter.
New York Yankees -- 90-72

Ninety-five win teams that don't do anything to improve do not get better. Especially when every significant player you have is old. No starter of note past CC Sabathia. I guess it's Phil Huges, A.J. Burnett and a cloud of dust. They will miss Andy Pettitte.
Tampa Bay Rays -- 84-78

How the hell did Manny Ramirez get $18 million? Pitching cures any and all ills. It's shocking how much great, young talent the Rays have to the point that it feels like they can give some away and still have plenty left over.
Toronto Blue Jays -- 81-81

If Aaron Hill and Adam Lind do not have bounceback seasons, the Blue Jays might have a tremendously awful offense. No way Jose Bautista recreates that monster 2010. Shitload of starting pitching, however.
Baltimore Orioles -- 70-92

Give the O's credit: They are trying. They signed Derrek Lee, Vlad Guerrero, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, Kevin Gregg, Jeremy Accardo and Justin Duchscherer. The Orioles are not a team that just rolls over and plays dead. Seems like they play opponents hard. It's just they're in the toughest division, arguably, in professional sports. Even the Blue Jays are division contenders in just about another other group of teams.
Labels:
MLB,
Predictions
Monday, 21 March 2011
The NL East

Predicting the 2011 MLB season. Without a net.
NL West and NL Central
Philadelphia Phillies -- 100-62

Just imagine if Roy Halliday, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee had all gone to the Miami Heat, we'd all hate them. The Phillies could be a disaster in four years. As for right now, they're the most fascinating thing in baseball and maybe in all of sports. They'll need all the pitching they can get. Jimmy Rollins ain't been good in two years and Chase Utley may never be healthy. Still, they'll win a lot of games.
Atlanta Braves -- 89-83
The Braves are a relatively young team that, should they get everyone back on track, they compete with Philadelphia in the East. Unfortunately, you depend on Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth taking a step or rebounding. You also depend on Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Scott Linebrink and Chipper Jones giving you a full season. Too many question marks for my money.

Florida Marlins -- 82-80
Two words: Javier Vasquez. The dude loves the National League. He'll win between 15-18 games this year. That's not even counting what Josh Johnson, Rick Nolasco, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez gives you. Probably 12-15 wins each. Now, if they find any offense they'll be set. Lot of holes in that line-up.
Washington Nationals -- 73-89
It's not as if the Nats are that much better than the Mets. I tend to feel Jayson Werth will be worth at least four more wins.
New York Mets -- 72-90

In a division with the Phillies, Mets and Marlins, you can't compete with such piss-poor pitching. The Mets might have the worst overall staff in the Majors.
Labels:
MLB,
Predictions
Thursday, 17 March 2011
The NL Central

Predicting the 2011 MLB season. Without a net.
NL West

Cincinnati Reds -- 94-68
Think about this: They're about to get their second full years from Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman. That's scary. This in addition to Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Homer Bailey. A good mix of veterans and youngsters. By the way, is this Jay Bruce's break-out year?
Milwaukee Brewers -- 85-77
Watch out for the Brew Crew! They've addressed their rotation and bullpen. Question is: Can they score? You've got your big guns, but will secondary bats come around and provide some support? Doug Melvin has Milwaukee back, contending.
St. Louis Cardinals -- 81-81

You don't lose your Cy-Young candidate No. 1 starter (Adam Wainwright and expect to bounce back that easily. Added two nice versatile bats in Nick Punto and Ryan Theriot, but I don't think it's enough. This is an extremely old team that's about to break the piggy bank for their star or they're going to let him go and start over. Tons of potential for injuries.
Houston Astros -- 80-82

I'd bet on a bounceback year from Carlos Lee, a break-out year from Brett Wallace and a continuance from Chris Johnson. If Houston can find themselves six or seven pitchers, expect them to win around 90 games, not 80.
Chicago Cubs -- 78-84

I think Matt Garza helps. However, this is an old, 75-win team a year ago in a tough division. Adding Carlos Pena to a team that swings free and easy (Rudy Jaramillo!) is not a good thing. Might set a franchise record in strikeouts.
Pittsburgh Pirates -- 62-100

Ugh. I feel so bad for the Pirates and the city of Pittsburgh. I feel that they deserve better. If your big addition is Kevin Correia, then things are amiss.
Labels:
MLB,
Predictions
Sunday, 6 March 2011
The NL West
Predicting the 2011 MLB season. Without a net. 
San Francisco Giants -- 90-72
I'm not in love with the line-up. I'm incredibly in love with the rotation and bullpen. Little has changed there, which is OK since it won them a World Series. If Barry Zito is your $18 million No. 5 starter, you can do a lot worse.
San Diego Padres --86-76

Of all predictions, I'm least in love with this one. No one's been busier than the Padres. They added Chad Qualls, Cam Maybin, the extremely underrated Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett and Jorge Cantu. Two names might benefit the most from PetCo's large confines: Dustin Moseley and Aaron Harang. The former is not very good, but he's not been very good with the Angels and Yankees. In San Diego, he'll get the benefit of the park and the lack of pressure. Harang wore out his welcome in Cincinnati. He's an innings eater. He can patch up the back end of your rotation. His ERA should benefit from the park, too.
Los Angeles Dodgers -- 84-78

I hate predicting the Dodgers. Added a few key pieces including the very underrated Jon Garland and also Matt Guerrier for the bullpen. I think, moreso, they are looking for Matt Kemp and Chad Billingsley to bounce back from subpar 2010s. Most think this is Clayton Kershaw's break-out season. Something to watch.
Colorado Rockies -- 82-80

The key to all these teams is having that one guy. An MVP. A Cy Young candidate. The Giants have several of the latter. The Dodgers might have one of each in Kershaw and Kemp. The Rockies might have the same in Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez. That will keep them in the NL West discussion. However, I think their rotation is too top-heavy. No one on the back end to get you 10-15 wins. Very heady pick-ups of Felipe Paulino and Matt Lindstrom to shore up the bullpen. An extremely young team with room to grow.
Arizona Diamondbacks -- 62-100

They are bad. Getting worse. But at least the payroll is low. The highest paid player on the current roster is Zach Duke at $4.3 million. At some point, the Diamondbacks will give up on the Justin Upton-Chris Young-Stephen Drew era. Need to rebuild while rebuilding.
Labels:
MLB,
Predictions
Sunday, 6 February 2011
Super Bowl update, gameday edition
Look at lil' DFW. Shows up on gameday with 45-degree temperatures and sunny skies. Good for us.
It's the day of the game, a mere hour-and-a-half until those guys go out and play the game of their lives.
I'm sticking to what I did in the conference championships. I'm going with my heart.
Pittsburgh 24, Green Bay 20
When I learned the Packers and Steelers would play in the Super Bowl, my initial gut reaction was that Ben Roethlisberger was going to win Super Bowl No. 3, Mike Tomlin will win ring No. 2 and the Steelers will solidify themselves as the greatest NFL franchise in history.
When I go with my heart and ignore all the talk and press swirling around me, I always find I do pretty well.
Pittsburgh is just too much. They're the only team I know where the whole starting offensive line could get food poisoning at a Jack in the Box and miss the game, and I would still pick them. Whatever they do, whatever Tomlin does to motivate them, it works. It just does. Why fight it? I'm going with it.
Another good point made to solidify my pick was someone mentioning how the Steelers aren't necessarily a run-first, low-scoring, stout defense team. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown can spread the field. Hines Ward is as reliable as Big Ben (the clock ... not the cock). Heath Miller is probably a top five tight end in the game. Rashard Mendenhall's contributions are just icing on the cake.
I do, however, feel it's going to be a really good game. I'm actually kind of pumped about it.
It's the day of the game, a mere hour-and-a-half until those guys go out and play the game of their lives.
I'm sticking to what I did in the conference championships. I'm going with my heart.
Pittsburgh 24, Green Bay 20
When I learned the Packers and Steelers would play in the Super Bowl, my initial gut reaction was that Ben Roethlisberger was going to win Super Bowl No. 3, Mike Tomlin will win ring No. 2 and the Steelers will solidify themselves as the greatest NFL franchise in history.
When I go with my heart and ignore all the talk and press swirling around me, I always find I do pretty well.
Pittsburgh is just too much. They're the only team I know where the whole starting offensive line could get food poisoning at a Jack in the Box and miss the game, and I would still pick them. Whatever they do, whatever Tomlin does to motivate them, it works. It just does. Why fight it? I'm going with it.
Another good point made to solidify my pick was someone mentioning how the Steelers aren't necessarily a run-first, low-scoring, stout defense team. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown can spread the field. Hines Ward is as reliable as Big Ben (the clock ... not the cock). Heath Miller is probably a top five tight end in the game. Rashard Mendenhall's contributions are just icing on the cake.
I do, however, feel it's going to be a really good game. I'm actually kind of pumped about it.
Labels:
City of Dallas,
NFL,
Predictions,
Super Bowl
Saturday, 29 January 2011
NFL Predictions, Phase II
I don't make predictions and run away from them as soon as they go bad. I, instead, face up to my frailties and hope to use these disappointments to become a better unpaid, slightly dorky sports blogger.
Accountability!
Predicted Record
Actual Record
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers -- 11-5 -- 6-10
I nearly did something as remarkable is picking this division perfectly. I almost did the total opposite. Had I swapped the bottom two, I would have picked the last-place team first and vice versa. You heard it here: The 49ers are a decent coach and decent quarterback from winning this division every year.
Arizona Cardinals -- 8-8 -- 5-11
I don't know why I undervalued Kurt Warner's departure.
Seattle Seahawks -- 6-10 -- 7-9
They were worse than bad. They were boring.
St. Louis Rams -- 4-12 -- 7-9
It was not always pretty and it was done with a ton of injuries and a bunch of no-names, but they won. Won in a bad division. If this division ever wakes up, the Rams could be leading the charge or left behind.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints -- 13-3 -- 11-5
The 2009-10 Saints got lucky for 19 weeks. No doubt they were good. But even better, they were lucky. They got huge turnovers in huge games and it paid dividends. Those turnovers didn't come around, they played from behind and Drew Brees was not nearly as effective.
Atlanta Falcons -- 9-7 -- 13-3
Still need defense. Still need an edge.
Carolina Panthers -- 8-8 -- 2-14
Like Cardinals, I somehow forgot who the quarterback was. The quarterback is a baseline for predicting. Start there and go down the line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 4-12 -- 10-6
"Is there a professional coach that looks more out of place and overwhelmed than Raheem Morris?" Well. I'm an idiot.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers -- 11-5 -- 10-6
"I think Aaron Rodgers is in 'fuck you' mode." Nailed it. That dude was on a mission all season. He carried that ragamuffin band all year.
Minnesota Vikings -- 9-7 -- 6-10
I kind of think Brett Favre's histrionics completely threw them off. Not having Sydney Rice killed them, too.
Chicago Bears -- 6-10 -- 11-5
It's no mistake that the Bears won as Matt Forte got fed the ball all year. It helps staying healthy on defense, too.
Detroit Lions -- 4-12 -- 6-10
An extremely fascinating team. Deserves seven wins. If they stay healthy, I think they get eight.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles -- 10-6 -- 10-6
I got it right. Just with the wrong quarterback.
Washington Redskins -- 10-6 -- 6-10
D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R.
Dallas Cowboys -- 9-7 -- 6-10
I thought they were ordinary. For half a season, they were plain bad.
New York Giants -- 6-10 -- 10-6
I will never underestimate Tom Coughlin or his teams again.
Accountability!
Predicted Record
Actual Record
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers -- 11-5 -- 6-10
I nearly did something as remarkable is picking this division perfectly. I almost did the total opposite. Had I swapped the bottom two, I would have picked the last-place team first and vice versa. You heard it here: The 49ers are a decent coach and decent quarterback from winning this division every year.
Arizona Cardinals -- 8-8 -- 5-11
I don't know why I undervalued Kurt Warner's departure.
Seattle Seahawks -- 6-10 -- 7-9
They were worse than bad. They were boring.
St. Louis Rams -- 4-12 -- 7-9
It was not always pretty and it was done with a ton of injuries and a bunch of no-names, but they won. Won in a bad division. If this division ever wakes up, the Rams could be leading the charge or left behind.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints -- 13-3 -- 11-5
The 2009-10 Saints got lucky for 19 weeks. No doubt they were good. But even better, they were lucky. They got huge turnovers in huge games and it paid dividends. Those turnovers didn't come around, they played from behind and Drew Brees was not nearly as effective.
Atlanta Falcons -- 9-7 -- 13-3
Still need defense. Still need an edge.
Carolina Panthers -- 8-8 -- 2-14
Like Cardinals, I somehow forgot who the quarterback was. The quarterback is a baseline for predicting. Start there and go down the line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 4-12 -- 10-6
"Is there a professional coach that looks more out of place and overwhelmed than Raheem Morris?" Well. I'm an idiot.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers -- 11-5 -- 10-6
"I think Aaron Rodgers is in 'fuck you' mode." Nailed it. That dude was on a mission all season. He carried that ragamuffin band all year.
Minnesota Vikings -- 9-7 -- 6-10
I kind of think Brett Favre's histrionics completely threw them off. Not having Sydney Rice killed them, too.
Chicago Bears -- 6-10 -- 11-5
It's no mistake that the Bears won as Matt Forte got fed the ball all year. It helps staying healthy on defense, too.
Detroit Lions -- 4-12 -- 6-10
An extremely fascinating team. Deserves seven wins. If they stay healthy, I think they get eight.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles -- 10-6 -- 10-6
I got it right. Just with the wrong quarterback.
Washington Redskins -- 10-6 -- 6-10
D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R.
Dallas Cowboys -- 9-7 -- 6-10
I thought they were ordinary. For half a season, they were plain bad.
New York Giants -- 6-10 -- 10-6
I will never underestimate Tom Coughlin or his teams again.
Labels:
NFL,
Predictions
Thursday, 27 January 2011
NFL Predictions, Phase I
The NFL season is almost done and over with. With everything but the big finale finished, we can look back at my amazing predictions.
Amazing accountability!
Predicted Record
Actual Record
AFC East
New York Jets -- 11-5 -- 11-5
Nailed this one almost exactly as I thought. Good enough to beat bad teams and ugly enough to steal a couple along the way. Rex Ryan is a gaping asshole, but he gets those 50 guys to play their ass off for him and that's commendable. Also, note the Jets gave a fifth round draft pick for Santonio Holmes. Jerry Jones can't do that.
New England Patriots -- 10-6 -- 14-2
Somehow won 14 games with zero vertical threat and somehow come out with a billion draft picks.
Miami Dolphins -- 10-6 -- 7-9
Bill Parcells leaves and the thing falls apart.
Buffalo Bills -- 3-13 -- 4-12
Every season, there's a bad NFL team that plays it tough every week. That was the 2010 Buffalo Bills.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens -- 12-4 -- 12-4
Loved the Ravens then. Still do. I don't think too much of Joe Flacco. I think you win 12 games a year and a playoff game.
Cincinnati Bengals -- 11-5 -- 4-12
As soon as the Bengals pull their head out of the ass, ship off the troublemakers and make Jordan Shipley the keystone to that offense, they'll be fine. Don't you feel like Carson Palmer should be a guy on a good team where he doesn't do anything and we say, "Carson Palmer just doesn't makes mistakes and keeps his team in the game." It's as if he deserves a better fate.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- 8-8 -- 12-4
I'm an idiot.
Cleveland Browns -- 3-13 -- 5-11
Trade of the year: Brady Quinn for Peyton Hillis.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts -- 12-4 -- 10-6
Whoever scouts defensive players for the Colts needs to be fired.
Tennessee Titans -- 10-6 -- 6-10
Chris Johnson was misused in most games. Granted they played from behind, but there's no one else I'd rather give the ball to than him down by two touchdowns.
Houston Texans -- 8-8 -- 6-10
The Texans didn't even have the common courtesy of going 8-8. Who are we supposed to overhype next season? Also wound up 6-10 with the best receiver and running back in the league.
Jacksonville Jaguars -- 6-10 -- 10-6
We might all be underestimating David Garrard and Jack Del Rio.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers -- 11-5 -- 9-7
If you could explain why Norv Turner's Chargers sucked in September and October, then you'd be a rich man. It's eerie how this happens every season. How is he not fired?
Oakland Raiders -- 8-8 -- 8-8
If the Raiders luck into a good receiver and a better quarterback, they're in the playoffs, easily.
Denver Broncos -- 7-9 -- 4-12
The Broncos are in ruins. They gave up on Josh McDaniels entirely too early, are marrying themselves to the cult of Tim Tebow and threw in the towel on Kyle Orton too soon.
Kansas City Chiefs -- 5-11 -- 10-6
Everything was better: O-line, D-line, quarterback, running game. Get better up front and you add two or three wins to your record.
Amazing accountability!
Predicted Record
Actual Record
AFC East
New York Jets -- 11-5 -- 11-5
Nailed this one almost exactly as I thought. Good enough to beat bad teams and ugly enough to steal a couple along the way. Rex Ryan is a gaping asshole, but he gets those 50 guys to play their ass off for him and that's commendable. Also, note the Jets gave a fifth round draft pick for Santonio Holmes. Jerry Jones can't do that.
New England Patriots -- 10-6 -- 14-2
Somehow won 14 games with zero vertical threat and somehow come out with a billion draft picks.
Miami Dolphins -- 10-6 -- 7-9
Bill Parcells leaves and the thing falls apart.
Buffalo Bills -- 3-13 -- 4-12
Every season, there's a bad NFL team that plays it tough every week. That was the 2010 Buffalo Bills.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens -- 12-4 -- 12-4
Loved the Ravens then. Still do. I don't think too much of Joe Flacco. I think you win 12 games a year and a playoff game.
Cincinnati Bengals -- 11-5 -- 4-12
As soon as the Bengals pull their head out of the ass, ship off the troublemakers and make Jordan Shipley the keystone to that offense, they'll be fine. Don't you feel like Carson Palmer should be a guy on a good team where he doesn't do anything and we say, "Carson Palmer just doesn't makes mistakes and keeps his team in the game." It's as if he deserves a better fate.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- 8-8 -- 12-4
I'm an idiot.
Cleveland Browns -- 3-13 -- 5-11
Trade of the year: Brady Quinn for Peyton Hillis.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts -- 12-4 -- 10-6
Whoever scouts defensive players for the Colts needs to be fired.
Tennessee Titans -- 10-6 -- 6-10
Chris Johnson was misused in most games. Granted they played from behind, but there's no one else I'd rather give the ball to than him down by two touchdowns.
Houston Texans -- 8-8 -- 6-10
The Texans didn't even have the common courtesy of going 8-8. Who are we supposed to overhype next season? Also wound up 6-10 with the best receiver and running back in the league.
Jacksonville Jaguars -- 6-10 -- 10-6
We might all be underestimating David Garrard and Jack Del Rio.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers -- 11-5 -- 9-7
If you could explain why Norv Turner's Chargers sucked in September and October, then you'd be a rich man. It's eerie how this happens every season. How is he not fired?
Oakland Raiders -- 8-8 -- 8-8
If the Raiders luck into a good receiver and a better quarterback, they're in the playoffs, easily.
Denver Broncos -- 7-9 -- 4-12
The Broncos are in ruins. They gave up on Josh McDaniels entirely too early, are marrying themselves to the cult of Tim Tebow and threw in the towel on Kyle Orton too soon.
Kansas City Chiefs -- 5-11 -- 10-6
Everything was better: O-line, D-line, quarterback, running game. Get better up front and you add two or three wins to your record.
Labels:
NFL,
Predictions
Saturday, 15 January 2011
Long division
Today -- in about an hour hours -- starts the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. I love the wild card weekend. I equally adore the divisional round.
Two days. Four games. The best of the best. Most times. Frankly, the AFC throughout is so stout, interesting and good. It makes me weep.
Despite the boring NFC, there's tons of rooting interest and amazing storylines that run circles around anything else going on.
To the games:
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Why Baltimore Could Win
Because it's a coin flip. This is a three-point game if there ever was one. One play here or there. A lucky bounce here or there. Plus, this is Joe Flacco's third rodeo. It's time for him to crap or get off the pot. What if this is Flacco's coming out party?
Why Pittsburgh Will Win
Because they just do. Because of those two rings on their fingers. Because the rapist Ben Roethlisberger has already had his "coming" out party and it's brought him success and two sexual assuault raps.
Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 21
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Why Green Bay Could Win
Their defense is quick and athletic. Aaron Rodgers is really good. James Starks is a BEAST.
Why Atlanta Will Win
The wild card week does funny things to people. One good win by one team and a week off for another and we conveniently forget that the team with the bye earned that bye. We've forgotten that Atlanta handily won a division with three playoff-caliber teams in it. We've forgotten about Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez. The Falcons can win battles up front. We've also forgotten that the Packers are riddled with injuries and that James Jones is going to drop about four passes in this game.
Atlanta 24, Green Bay 17
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
Why Seattle Could Win
If they get incredibly lucky and Matt Hasselbeck plays the game of his life for the second straight week.
Why Chicago Will Win
It's do or die time for a number of quarterbacks. I think this week could be a precursor to the fates of Rodgers, Flacco and Jay Cutler. Cutler's ability mirrors that of the fortunes of the Bears. I give the Seahawks credit for jumping up and biting the Saints in the ass. However, they don't have home-field advantage any longer and the difference between the Bears' defense and that of the Saints' is otherworldly. It'll be a whole new game for the Seahawks. Why no one has given the Bears credit is beyond me. You don't have to like them to realize you don't sleepwalk to 10 or more wins.
Chicago 33, Seattle 10
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Why New York Could Win
If Shonn Greene and Ladainian Tomlinson find room and turn this into a short, low-scoring game. If the Jets keep the Patriots to less than 23 points, they'll like their chances. Also, Tom Brady will need his worst-ever playoff performance.
Why New England Will Win
You don't tug on Superman's cape. Especially if you yourself have no superpowers. Tom Brady not having his worst-ever playoff game. That young, athletic defense. Those young pass catchers. And because the Jets barely beat a not-very-good, injury-riddled Indianapolis team. This doesn't bode well against a very-good, healthy New England team.
New England 35, New York 24
Two days. Four games. The best of the best. Most times. Frankly, the AFC throughout is so stout, interesting and good. It makes me weep.
Despite the boring NFC, there's tons of rooting interest and amazing storylines that run circles around anything else going on.
To the games:
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Why Baltimore Could Win
Because it's a coin flip. This is a three-point game if there ever was one. One play here or there. A lucky bounce here or there. Plus, this is Joe Flacco's third rodeo. It's time for him to crap or get off the pot. What if this is Flacco's coming out party?
Why Pittsburgh Will Win
Because they just do. Because of those two rings on their fingers. Because the rapist Ben Roethlisberger has already had his "coming" out party and it's brought him success and two sexual assuault raps.
Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 21
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Why Green Bay Could Win
Their defense is quick and athletic. Aaron Rodgers is really good. James Starks is a BEAST.
Why Atlanta Will Win
The wild card week does funny things to people. One good win by one team and a week off for another and we conveniently forget that the team with the bye earned that bye. We've forgotten that Atlanta handily won a division with three playoff-caliber teams in it. We've forgotten about Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez. The Falcons can win battles up front. We've also forgotten that the Packers are riddled with injuries and that James Jones is going to drop about four passes in this game.
Atlanta 24, Green Bay 17
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
Why Seattle Could Win
If they get incredibly lucky and Matt Hasselbeck plays the game of his life for the second straight week.
Why Chicago Will Win
It's do or die time for a number of quarterbacks. I think this week could be a precursor to the fates of Rodgers, Flacco and Jay Cutler. Cutler's ability mirrors that of the fortunes of the Bears. I give the Seahawks credit for jumping up and biting the Saints in the ass. However, they don't have home-field advantage any longer and the difference between the Bears' defense and that of the Saints' is otherworldly. It'll be a whole new game for the Seahawks. Why no one has given the Bears credit is beyond me. You don't have to like them to realize you don't sleepwalk to 10 or more wins.
Chicago 33, Seattle 10
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Why New York Could Win
If Shonn Greene and Ladainian Tomlinson find room and turn this into a short, low-scoring game. If the Jets keep the Patriots to less than 23 points, they'll like their chances. Also, Tom Brady will need his worst-ever playoff performance.
Why New England Will Win
You don't tug on Superman's cape. Especially if you yourself have no superpowers. Tom Brady not having his worst-ever playoff game. That young, athletic defense. Those young pass catchers. And because the Jets barely beat a not-very-good, injury-riddled Indianapolis team. This doesn't bode well against a very-good, healthy New England team.
New England 35, New York 24
Labels:
NFL,
Playoffs,
Predictions
Friday, 7 January 2011
The wild card
I'm inordinately excited about the NFL playoffs. It's been a good football season. I've watched an insane amount of ball including just about every team. Including the Carolina Panthers.
It's been really fun. You can typically find a handful of good games every week. In fact, it's been so good the last several years, I can't imagine the league not being around next year due to labor woes. It's easy for me to say the owners and players can't afford a work stoppage when you're on top. Then again, they're on top for a reason, and maybe a renegotiation is a part of it getting better.
Anyway, the build up of the season results in the playoffs and my favorite week is the first week, the wild card round. It's where anything can happen. You get two games a day: Eight teams that'll leave it on the field in order to play another week. It's the human spirit at its brink.
New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks
Why I Like The Saints
Drew Brees. Score like crazy and are one of the best offensive teams playing against one of the worst defensive teams in the Seahawks. The Saints have been there and veterans like Brees won't allow this team to relax or let their guard down. Because when the Seahawks get beat, they get really smashed. Because New Orleans was better on the road than Seattle was at home.
Why I Like The Seahawks
They are at home and Quest Field is an insane place to play. Probably one of the truest home-field advantages in professional sports. Because New Orleans has more running backs on the IR than they do on their roster. Because the magic behind all those wonderful turnovers taken advantage of by New Orleans a year ago have disappeared. Because the Seahawks have nothing to lose.
Prediction
Saints 31, Seahawks 19
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
Why I Like The Jets
Because the Colts are riddled with injuries. Their defense is soft and allows too many rushing yards. Because Peyton Manning's had the yips all season and it's killed them week after week. Because I think Rex Ryan is going to coach his team up to win one of these games. Brad Smith.
Why I Like The Colts
Peyton Manning. At home. Against an overaggressive team that loves to blitz; Manning being a quarterback that eats blitzing teams for lunch. Because they're a tad healthier.
Prediction
Colts 23, Jets 21
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Why I Like The Ravens
Because they went into Foxboro a year ago and took it to the Patriots. Because it's a team built around running the ball and playing defense; the latter they may or may not do as well as they did 10 years ago, but it doesn't matter because they punch you in the mouth enough for you to think they do. Because Joe Flacco's due. Because the Chiefs pooped the bed a week ago. Because the Chiefs are like a 13-year-old with a hooker: They wouldn't know what to do with it if they got it. Ray Rice.
Why I Like The Chiefs
They're 7-1 at home. That fanbase will show up and make life hard on the Ravens. Because they do one thing well -- run the ball -- and can shorten this game and make a close one in the fourth quarter a coin flip. Because the Chiefs have an opportunistic and young defense.
Prediction
Chiefs 19, Ravens 13
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Why I Like The Packers
Mike Vick looks tired and you can gameplan to beat him whereas you can only hope quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers you hope you can stop. The Pack have the defenders to keep up with the Eagles' receivers. Because the Eagles defense is not very good and they do not run the ball well. Because if you keep the Eagles from the home run, they might get shut out. Aaron Rodgers.
Why I Like The Eagles
Andy Reid is a remarkable coach. DeSean Jackson. They're at home where 50K Philly fans will already be shitfaced at 3 p.m. The Packers are eaten up with injuries.
Prediction
Packers 31,
Eagles 20
It's been really fun. You can typically find a handful of good games every week. In fact, it's been so good the last several years, I can't imagine the league not being around next year due to labor woes. It's easy for me to say the owners and players can't afford a work stoppage when you're on top. Then again, they're on top for a reason, and maybe a renegotiation is a part of it getting better.
Anyway, the build up of the season results in the playoffs and my favorite week is the first week, the wild card round. It's where anything can happen. You get two games a day: Eight teams that'll leave it on the field in order to play another week. It's the human spirit at its brink.
New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks
Why I Like The Saints
Drew Brees. Score like crazy and are one of the best offensive teams playing against one of the worst defensive teams in the Seahawks. The Saints have been there and veterans like Brees won't allow this team to relax or let their guard down. Because when the Seahawks get beat, they get really smashed. Because New Orleans was better on the road than Seattle was at home.
Why I Like The Seahawks
They are at home and Quest Field is an insane place to play. Probably one of the truest home-field advantages in professional sports. Because New Orleans has more running backs on the IR than they do on their roster. Because the magic behind all those wonderful turnovers taken advantage of by New Orleans a year ago have disappeared. Because the Seahawks have nothing to lose.
Prediction
Saints 31, Seahawks 19
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
Why I Like The Jets
Because the Colts are riddled with injuries. Their defense is soft and allows too many rushing yards. Because Peyton Manning's had the yips all season and it's killed them week after week. Because I think Rex Ryan is going to coach his team up to win one of these games. Brad Smith.
Why I Like The Colts
Peyton Manning. At home. Against an overaggressive team that loves to blitz; Manning being a quarterback that eats blitzing teams for lunch. Because they're a tad healthier.
Prediction
Colts 23, Jets 21
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Why I Like The Ravens
Because they went into Foxboro a year ago and took it to the Patriots. Because it's a team built around running the ball and playing defense; the latter they may or may not do as well as they did 10 years ago, but it doesn't matter because they punch you in the mouth enough for you to think they do. Because Joe Flacco's due. Because the Chiefs pooped the bed a week ago. Because the Chiefs are like a 13-year-old with a hooker: They wouldn't know what to do with it if they got it. Ray Rice.
Why I Like The Chiefs
They're 7-1 at home. That fanbase will show up and make life hard on the Ravens. Because they do one thing well -- run the ball -- and can shorten this game and make a close one in the fourth quarter a coin flip. Because the Chiefs have an opportunistic and young defense.
Prediction
Chiefs 19, Ravens 13
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Why I Like The Packers
Mike Vick looks tired and you can gameplan to beat him whereas you can only hope quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers you hope you can stop. The Pack have the defenders to keep up with the Eagles' receivers. Because the Eagles defense is not very good and they do not run the ball well. Because if you keep the Eagles from the home run, they might get shut out. Aaron Rodgers.
Why I Like The Eagles
Andy Reid is a remarkable coach. DeSean Jackson. They're at home where 50K Philly fans will already be shitfaced at 3 p.m. The Packers are eaten up with injuries.
Prediction
Packers 31,
Eagles 20
Labels:
NFL,
Playoffs,
Predictions
Saturday, 1 January 2011
A merciful end
No idea 18 weeks ago that the end of the Dallas Cowboys' season would come with about as little fanfare as you could imagine.
So much so that the game this Sunday in Philadelphia is meaningless. So much so, the Eagles are sitting their starting quarterback. What's more, that starting quarterback isn't Donovan McNabb or Kevin Kolb, but, instead, Michael Vick, who's a legit MVP candidate and the most dangerous player in the league.
Who knew?
Five things:
Kevin Kolb
Although Kolb is probably not starting for the Eagles in the forseeable future, I would imagine he'd want a good showing. The possibility of the Eagles trading him to a team in need of a starting quarterback is high. Kolb can help himself with a good game against a Cowboys secondary that's prone to making even the most ordinary quarterbacks look like Johnny Unitas.
Job Hunting
Jason Garrett's not nailed down his job. He's lost just enough for Jerry Jones to make a real attempt at finding a full-time replacement. More and more I'm getting the feeling it won't be back when three weeks ago, I was convinced he was staying. The NFL's a fickle bitch. Anyway, as Garrett may not be around, there are plenty of job openings next season and I'm sure he's coaching for one.
Stephen McGee
Our first real look at the guy. Slightly intrigued.
Last Hurrahs
Is this the last showing the likes of Marion Barber, Igor Olshansky, Marcus Spears, Roy Williams and others?
Feeling a Draft
I fully realize that Jason Witten and Keith Brooking could give two shits about the Cowboys getting a top 10 pick in the 2011 draft. I don't expect them to care. But ... should they lose they could jump near the top 5 and a win could catapult them into the mid-teens. As far as shaping this team in the future, this is a huge game. What if you can add a Dez Bryant-type, NFL-ready talent on the defensive or offensive lines?
Prediction
Eagles 28, Cowboys 17
Forget playing for something or back-ups, the Eagles are just better and they're at home. The fans will be ravenous to completely bury the hated Cowboys.
So much so that the game this Sunday in Philadelphia is meaningless. So much so, the Eagles are sitting their starting quarterback. What's more, that starting quarterback isn't Donovan McNabb or Kevin Kolb, but, instead, Michael Vick, who's a legit MVP candidate and the most dangerous player in the league.
Who knew?
Five things:
Kevin Kolb
Although Kolb is probably not starting for the Eagles in the forseeable future, I would imagine he'd want a good showing. The possibility of the Eagles trading him to a team in need of a starting quarterback is high. Kolb can help himself with a good game against a Cowboys secondary that's prone to making even the most ordinary quarterbacks look like Johnny Unitas.
Job Hunting
Jason Garrett's not nailed down his job. He's lost just enough for Jerry Jones to make a real attempt at finding a full-time replacement. More and more I'm getting the feeling it won't be back when three weeks ago, I was convinced he was staying. The NFL's a fickle bitch. Anyway, as Garrett may not be around, there are plenty of job openings next season and I'm sure he's coaching for one.
Stephen McGee
Our first real look at the guy. Slightly intrigued.
Last Hurrahs
Is this the last showing the likes of Marion Barber, Igor Olshansky, Marcus Spears, Roy Williams and others?
Feeling a Draft
I fully realize that Jason Witten and Keith Brooking could give two shits about the Cowboys getting a top 10 pick in the 2011 draft. I don't expect them to care. But ... should they lose they could jump near the top 5 and a win could catapult them into the mid-teens. As far as shaping this team in the future, this is a huge game. What if you can add a Dez Bryant-type, NFL-ready talent on the defensive or offensive lines?
Prediction
Eagles 28, Cowboys 17
Forget playing for something or back-ups, the Eagles are just better and they're at home. The fans will be ravenous to completely bury the hated Cowboys.
Labels:
Dallas Cowboys,
Predictions
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