Rip City murderers Maybe -- just maybe -- we've exaggerated the Mavericks' weaknesses.
However, I think this lack of faith in the Mavericks is equated to being swept in the first round. I think those of us who have been pessimistic about the Mavericks' chances are merely stating that the gap between the third and sixth seeds or nine wins is not has vast as you might expect.
Disregard the standings. The Blazers are not significantly worse than the Mavericks. Therefore, if all things are even, you must look at intangibles. Who is hungrier? Healthier? Younger? Who's been playing better? Above all, I think match-ups matter the most. How can you prevent the opponent's better players from being better and how can the opponent stop your better players?
Here are the keys to this series:
LaMarcus Aldridge
Dirk Nowitzki is not the only superstar in this series. Aldridge has taken a gigantic step this season. He is a legit MVP candidate and one of the top 20 players in the league. How do you stop him? Do you put Dirk Nowitzki on him? Tyson Chandler? And if so, do you leave the door open for Marcus Camby going crazy? Do you dig in your depth for Ian Mahinmi or an athletic sort? Reverse the situation. Aldridge has become a true bug for Dirk Nowitzki. Possibly no one plays Nowitzki better. Alredge is long and athletic. He gets in Nowitzki's grill and knows how to pester our Teutonic friend into pure frustration. It's maddening to see one player being able to harrass the Mavericks on both ends of the court.
The Big Quarter
Look at the Mavericks of the past month and I beg you find me a game in which they haven't allowed 30+ points in a quarter. It's a big reason they've struggled against good teams. Against bad ones, you can almost always make up for it. Bad teams are bad for a reason. However, against playoff teams, you can't allow quarters like that. They take advantage and they're good enough defensively the other three quarters to make that one good quarter stick. Should the Mavericks lose this series, I would dare anyone to find me that one quarter in the game when the Mavs gave up the ghost.
Rebounding
I've harped on rebounding the entire season. It's one thing the Mavericks should be really good at, but they're not. With all the heighth the Mavericks have, you might think they'd be in the top five in the league. Instead they're stuck in the middle despite Jason Kidd, Tyson Chandler, Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion and Brendan Haywood getting minutes. As mediocre as the Mavericks have been, the Trailblazers are awful despite, again, having Camby and Aldridge. It's the guards that don't help out and bring down the average. The Mavericks averaged nearly two rebounds more per game than the Blazers, although the latter finished in the bottom five in the league. In order for either team to win, they must have the rebounding advantage.
Age
As the Mavericks are licking their wounds and trying to rest up for the playoffs, the Blazers probably are too young and dumb to realize they aren't supposed to win against the playoff-grizzled Mavs. Andre Miller and Marcus Camby are the only Blazers over the age of 30. Veteran Gerald Wallace is nine years into his career and he's just 28. Nic Batum is 22. Aldridge is 25. Wesley Matthews is 24. Not that the Blazers are the healthiest bunch in the league. But who gets out of bed easier this morning?
Rotation, Rotation, Rotation
As of this morning, no one could probably accurately guess Rick Carlisle's rotation for the playoffs. As is the norm, a coach typically has a seven- or eight-man rotation for the playoffs. Guys that might have helped you throughout the year might find themselves sitting most of a whole series or playoffs on the bench. If Nowitzki, Kidd, Chandler, Marion and Terry are sure-fire, that leaves a starting shooting guard (DeShawn Stevenson) and I guess Haywood and J.J. Barea? That's eight. Is Mahinmi going to get minutes against Aldridge? Where does Peja Stojakovic fit? Frankly, do any of these guys being on the court for 20 minutes instill any amount of confidence? The Mavericks' depth is illusion.
Prediction
\Trailblazers in seven
Talk about all of the known weaknesses for the Mavericks. However, I think we're forced to contend with the perceived strengths. The bench is not nearly as good or deep as we think. The defense has hid behind the zone all year. Rebounding is a huge chore that the Mavericks do not do well. All will sink this team.
