Durant, Oklahom
Durant, Oklahoma
Durant, OklahomaThe Dallas Mavericks begin their fourth Western Conference Finals in franchise history tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
I'm tired of doubting the Mavericks. I doubted them against Portland. I doubted them against Los Angeles.
It goes against everything that is right and normal in the world. But the Mavericks are winning games and no matter what I think of Oklahoma City or the Mavericks, I sure as hell am not picking against the latter.
Mavericks in seven, because I can't imagine it going just five and I don't think the Mavericks will win it on the road. Too tough. That goddamn city is nuts.
Five things:
Russell Westbrook
I don't care what happened in the regular season. Westbrook played like a top 15 player in the league all season and he is fit to get the Mavericks fits. He's big and quick. He can pound the smaller guys and by Jason Kidd any time he wants. Westbrook should score 25 points a game, and if he doesn't, the Thunder are screwed.
Rust v. Rest
The debate of the long rest versus fighting off rust will get an answer. Frankly, if there was a definitive answer to whether long layoffs help a team, we'd have it. I think the Mavericks might be a little rusty to start, and, ideally, it'll shake off with time. Can the Thunder pounce?
Mis-match-ups
One thing that worries me about the Thunder is that the Mavericks' strengths defensively (quick, smart guards and bodies frontcourt) do not match up to the Thunder's strengths offensively. The Thunder have zero length and Kendrick Perkins is a nice piece in the middle, but he's not a guy like LaMarcus Aldridge or Pau Gasol or Andy Bynum that needs constant attention. The Thunder depend on the George Gervin-like Kevin Durant and Westbrook. As noted, Westbrook should punish the Mavericks. As for Durant, the Mavericks will need an answer. He's no warm body just jacking up shots. He's won the scoring title two straight seasons. He's a super-duper-star. You can't imagine that Shawn Marion will stop him for seven games.
Experience
Does it really matter? Do the Chicago Bulls have experience or any more experience than the Thunder? To me, it's bullshit. The idea that a team "doesn't know how to win these type of games" seems lame. It's convenient. Why can't a team just not execute. Happens all the time. Hopefully the Mavericks aren't hanging their hats on experience.
Peaking
Did the Mavericks absolutely peak against the Los Angeles Lakers? Let's face it, they played a nearly flawless series and that game four was otherworldly. There's a good chance they'll never play that well again. In a perfect storm (or a nearly-perfect storm), the Thunder run the Mavericks out of the gym. I don't know if the Thunder have that in them; on the other hand, I don't know if the Mavericks have the legs or guts to go seven games with the young Thunder.
