Someone's excited The NBA Finals begins tonight and in at least four games (possibly seven), we will look completely different at some players than we do today.
It's one of the reasons I love sports. It's a big reason I love the NBA Finals.
Imagine what you'll think about Dirk Nowitzki or Lebron James once this thing is all decided upon. It's incredible. Both players have had to work to patch together their identity and reputation in different ways.
Nowitzki was considered a great player, but a soft one. One that could be pushed around and kowtowed to opposing players. Someone that was on that third tier of superstardom.
James dumped his multi-billion dollar reputation in the toilet a summer ago with "The Decision" and the apparent tampering involved with him going to the Miami Heat in free agency. His reputation is not completely healed and it might take years. Or a championship.
Many think that the Heat are just going to improve over the years and that this is the last year before they take over. This is awfully presumptuous, clearly. I don't pay it any mind. Still, Heat or no, this is probably a final hurrah for Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion and others. With a work stoppage looming, it might be the last chance for the Mavericks as we know them today.
My first thoughts about this series started with match-ups. I honestly don't know who guards James or Dwayne Wade (stick DeShawn Stevenson on James ... OK, who guards Wade?). I also don't know who guards Nowitzki. Truth is, the Mavericks haven't faced an animal like James or Wade nor have the Heat faced an animal like Nowitzki.
It comes down to execution, clearly. If Jason Terry shoots 2-12, the Mavericks are sunk. If Kidd turns the ball over six times and dishes three assists, the Mavericks are sunk. If Lebron James shoots 22 feet from the basket or if Chris Bosh goes 5-15, the Heat don't stand a very good chance.
Honestly, if either team wants to win, you simply go to the hoop. You'll get lay-ups, you'll get fouled and you'll put the opponent in deep shit with foul trouble.
When's the last time you watched the 2006 Finals? I re-watched them recently on YouTube. It's extraordinary how "facts" change when you watch those games again. So much attention was poured on the officiating. You forget Josh Howard and Jason Terry being the dumbest basketball players on Earth. You forget DeSagana Diop being the starting center. You forget Dirk Nowitzki not touching the ball for possession after possession in the fourth quarter.
You forget the 20 footers in crunch time. When the Mavericks absolutely needed a basket, they could not (or would not) get any closer than 20 feet for a shot, many of them bad with the shot clock winding down. Meanwhile, if the Heat needed a basket, they could drive past their defender ANY TIME THEY WANTED and get a lay-up or a WIDE-OPEN jumper.
Want know why the Mavericks didn't get the free throw attempts? They shot the ball from 20 feet away from the basket.
Our idea of officiating was skewed. We thought free throw numbers should be even. However, re-watching those games, the fouls were not even. Maybe there were some missed calls that were in favor of Dallas, but there were twice as many Mavericks mistakes and just as many times the Heat took advantage.
The Mavericks -- contrary to what their owner would tell you -- killed themselves.
If it happens again, blame the referees all you want, but chances are we'll be able to check the tape and find out that execution and intelligence was lacking.
Five points:
Ghosts
If you don't think that Mark Cuban, Terry and Nowitzki hasn't thought about 2006, you are crazy. They've pretty much said the same thing. Granted, the rest of the roster was not around. But neither was most of the Heat's roster, outside of Dwayne Wade and Udonis Haslem. Neither team may realize the ghosts that inhabit the eastern American Airlines Center, but the fans know, Nowitzki knows and Terry knows. Dangerously, Wade knows. Bad sports mojo exists. It was one of the greatest collapses in sports history. That can not be forgotten.
Chris Bosh
As Bosh goes, so do the Heat. Simple. Two superstars are fine. It'll get you in the arena. Three superstar-like players win you most games. Tyson Chandler has a mighty deed to stop him and make him look silly. If Bosh spits the bit, the Mavericks win.
Depth
Famously, the Heat employ the services of Joel Anthony, Mike Bibby, Mario Chalmers, James Jones, Juwan Howard and Erick Dampier. It is safe to say that the Mavericks hold the edge on depth over the Heat. Hell, it's safe to say most teams hold that edge. It's one thing to hold that edge. It's another to make it work for you. The Mavericks bench will need to be notable in this series. You'll need to see a double-digit point differentials from the bench players. Jason Terry will need to be good. And they'll all need to be as good as they can on defense, especially Brendan Haywood and J.J. Barea.
Lebron James: Defender
Forget his offense, James has solidified himself as a top-notch defender this season. I've always felt this way, but there's an intensity in these playoffs that have caught everyone's attention. I think the Heat will throw a number of looks at Nowitzki and I think a big one will be James. Yes, a smaller player (a player Nowitzki's punished before), but he's not smaller in the way that Kobe Bryant or Kevin Durant are smaller. He's like a tall linebacker. Either way, he could guard Jason Kidd, Jason Terry or Shawn Marion. He can take away at least one of your players. Period.
Dirk
Take all the good press, impressive players and fantastic games Nowitzki's had this post-season and stuff them into seven games. That's what he'll need to do. Take that 2006 Nowitzki and improve him 45 percent and that's the guy that'll need to show up. The Heat can probably survive a superstar struggling. I don't think the Mavericks can do that. I hate to put everything him, but we'll need to be agog in regards to Nowitzki when this thing's over if the Mavericks hope to win.
Prediction
Mavericks in 6
Dirk's different. This is a team of destiny. A team defying all odds, so why should that change? I said I wouldn't pick against them again after the Los Angeles sweep and I'll stand by that. I think the depth will hurt the Heat. I think the Mavericks are smarter and I don't think they'll fall into the same traps they did in 2006.
