Wednesday, 25 May 2011

For whom the Heath Bell tolls

Ring-ding-dong
I'm sure that headline's NEVER been written.

It's late-May and the trade rumors are already out there. Yesterday, the Rangers were one of several teams that it appears have called the San Diego Padres about closer Heath Bell.

It makes so much sense that it makes me throw up in my mouth.

MLB Trade Rumors discussed Bell's trade value.

Bell is a 33-year-old 6-3 righty badass and the only consistently good to great piece of a sad-sack San Diego Padres team.

For the last six years, you'd be hard pressed to find a better bullpen hand. He set up for Trevor Hoffman for two years and has served as closer the last three years.

He's just as good this season with a 2.00 ERA and hitters have a .209 average against him. But his strikeouts are down to 6.4 per nine innings. The difference is that his groundball percentage is up to 54 percent. His fastball is still good at 93 mph, on average.

What drives up his value is his success, demand (at least four times off the top of your head would be interested) and he's arbitration eligible and would get you two draft picks if he walks.

What drives down his value is his relative lack of time he might spend with a club. You might have him for half a season. I would suspect the Rangers would try to keep him if they should trade for him, especially if the goal is to still move Neftali Feliz to the rotation next season.

He's not a spring chicken (although 33 is not old) and he's also not cheap. He's due $7.5 million this season.

Obviously, is the same ol' song and dance here. A team will give up better prospects if the Padres would be willing to pay some of that deal. Or the Padres could just keep him, offer arbitration and let him walk for the draft picks.

I would find it unlikely the Padres would trade him without getting a top 10 organizational prospect, not top five, but top 10.

Regardless, the Rangers have to make this happen. For this season and for the next three or four. He's a guy you can put in the back end of the bullpen and let ride through his mid-30s as this team rides this crest of success and youth.