Sunday 6 March 2011

The NL West

Predicting the 2011 MLB season. Without a net.

San Francisco Giants -- 90-72
I'm not in love with the line-up. I'm incredibly in love with the rotation and bullpen. Little has changed there, which is OK since it won them a World Series. If Barry Zito is your $18 million No. 5 starter, you can do a lot worse.

San Diego Padres --86-76
Of all predictions, I'm least in love with this one. No one's been busier than the Padres. They added Chad Qualls, Cam Maybin, the extremely underrated Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett and Jorge Cantu. Two names might benefit the most from PetCo's large confines: Dustin Moseley and Aaron Harang. The former is not very good, but he's not been very good with the Angels and Yankees. In San Diego, he'll get the benefit of the park and the lack of pressure. Harang wore out his welcome in Cincinnati. He's an innings eater. He can patch up the back end of your rotation. His ERA should benefit from the park, too.

Los Angeles Dodgers -- 84-78
I hate predicting the Dodgers. Added a few key pieces including the very underrated Jon Garland and also Matt Guerrier for the bullpen. I think, moreso, they are looking for Matt Kemp and Chad Billingsley to bounce back from subpar 2010s. Most think this is Clayton Kershaw's break-out season. Something to watch.

Colorado Rockies -- 82-80
The key to all these teams is having that one guy. An MVP. A Cy Young candidate. The Giants have several of the latter. The Dodgers might have one of each in Kershaw and Kemp. The Rockies might have the same in Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez. That will keep them in the NL West discussion. However, I think their rotation is too top-heavy. No one on the back end to get you 10-15 wins. Very heady pick-ups of Felipe Paulino and Matt Lindstrom to shore up the bullpen. An extremely young team with room to grow.

Arizona Diamondbacks -- 62-100
They are bad. Getting worse. But at least the payroll is low. The highest paid player on the current roster is Zach Duke at $4.3 million. At some point, the Diamondbacks will give up on the Justin Upton-Chris Young-Stephen Drew era. Need to rebuild while rebuilding.