Friday, 15 October 2010

MLB playoff predictions, ALCS-style

Buster!
For the record, I did pretty well predicting the divisional round series.

I failed to pick one team (ironically, Texas) and got the other three right (San Fran, Yanks, Phils) and nailed two of the series with the team and number of games (Phils in three, San Fran in four). Although I failed to pick the Rangers, I did correctly predict the number of games (five).

I'm awesome, apparently.

With a tortured post coming soon about the Rangers-Yanks, I focus here on the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants.

Where are we on the dynasty watch for the Phillies?

They've won four straight NL East titles. They've won two straight pennants, including one World Series. And there's a really good chance they get their third straight pennant and a second World Series.

The Phillies are about pitching. Roy Halliday, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels give them a pretty salty 1-2-3 that would stun a mastodon in any five- or seven-game series.

However, I think the Giants have the edge in pitching. Although Halliday is the best, I think the Giants are deeper with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner.

To piggyback that thought, the Giants are much better out of the bullpen. Much, much better. For the season, the Giants had the second-best bullpen (by ERA) in the National League with a 2.99. The Phils lagged with a 4.02 bullpen ERA.

The Giants have had a consistent (and intense) closer in the Beach Boys' Brian Wilson, whilst the Phils have futilely tried to fill that spot with Brad Lidge and Co., the veritable Dave Clark Five of bullpens.

For overall ERAs, the Giants were second in the National League. The Phillies were fifth.

All of this brings us to hitting. Basically, the series comes down to pitching; but the biggest question is whether the Phillies' superior offense can get to the Giants pitching and/or can the Giants meager offense drum up anything against the Phils.

No matter what, the Giants have always found a way to get runs across the plate. However, you typically don't make it to World Series on the back of Aubrey Huff. Or a rookie like the exceptional Buster Posey (who is quickly becoming one of my favorite players). It's just too much.

Because I could never doubt Halliday ...

Phillies in 7